Doc #53 — Fuel Allocation and Drawdown Model

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RECOMMENDED ACTIONS BY URGENCY

First 24–48 hours (genuinely critical)

1. Emergency fuel moratorium. Announce immediate suspension of all non-essential fuel sales. Service stations close or limit sales to emergency-designated vehicles. The mechanism: broadcast announcement plus physical enforcement at major fuel terminals.

2. Secure bulk storage sites. Military or police presence at Marsden Point, major port terminals, and pipeline infrastructure. Not to operate the sites — existing staff do that — but to prevent unauthorized draws and establish government control.

3. Contact fuel companies. Z Energy, bp, Mobil — direct engagement at CEO level. These companies have the inventory data, the distribution networks, and the operational expertise. The government needs their cooperation, not their replacement.

First week

4. Establish actual stock position. Fuel companies report total volumes by product type, by location. This is the single most important data point for all subsequent planning.

5. Implement Tier 1 allocation. Emergency services, medical facilities, food distribution, fishing fleet — these receive fuel allocation cards or authorizations. All other use remains suspended.

6. Begin fuel stabilizer treatment. Treat petrol stocks with stabilizer to extend shelf life. NZ imports all fuel stabilizer (typically petroleum-distillate-based products such as Sta-Bil); domestic stocks are limited to retail and commercial inventory held by auto parts retailers and fuel distributors — likely sufficient for a fraction of total petrol stocks.⁴ If stabilizer supply is insufficient to treat all petrol, prioritize treating petrol in long-term storage; diesel is more stable without treatment. Biocide for diesel treatment (to prevent microbial growth) is similarly imported and finite.

First month

7. Implement Tier 2 allocation. Agricultural operations, dairy collection, forestry, coastal shipping, essential worker transport. Allocation based on demonstrated need, not prior consumption.

8. Designate strategic reserves. Aviation fuel sealed. Marine reserve designated. Contingency reserve established.

9. Begin gasifier prototype program. In coordination with Doc #56 implementation — prototype workshop selection, materials allocation, construction begins.

10. Fuel audit system operational. Monitoring, compliance checking, discrepancy investigation.

First 3 months

11. Regional allocation system fully operational. Regional Fuel Controllers managing allocation within their regions based on national guidelines.

12. Transition planning updated. Based on actual stock data (now known), actual gasifier construction progress, actual agricultural needs — update the drawdown projection with real numbers.

13. Begin petrol drawdown prioritization. Consume petrol stocks before diesel where possible, to avoid degradation losses.

Ongoing (months 3–12+)

14. Monthly allocation review. Adjust allocations based on actual consumption, alternative fuel progress, and remaining stocks.

15. Progressive transition. As wood gas, biodiesel, and electric alternatives come online, reduce petroleum allocation to those sectors. Freed-up fuel extends the bridge for sectors that cannot yet transition (fishing fleet, aviation reserve).

16. Drawdown tracking. Published monthly report on remaining stocks, consumption rates, transition progress. Transparency maintains public trust and enables course correction.

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ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION

10.1 The cost of no rationing

Without rationing, NZ’s petroleum stocks are exhausted in 3–5 weeks. When fuel runs out abruptly:

• Food distribution collapses (trucks stop)
• Emergency services cannot respond
• Agricultural operations halt (no tractor fuel, no irrigation pumps)
• Fishing fleet stays in port (no protein)
• The transition to alternatives has barely begun — there is no bridge

The cost is measurable in concrete operational failures: food distribution halts, medical emergencies go without ambulance response, and agricultural operations collapse at the start of the growing season.

10.2 The cost of rationing

Strict rationing imposes severe costs:

• Private mobility effectively ceases for most people
• Economic activity not designated as essential stops
• Regional communities become relatively isolated
• Personal freedom is sharply curtailed
• Enforcement requires significant government resources
• Black market fuel trade is virtually certain

These costs are real and should not be minimized. But they are the costs of managing a finite resource over months rather than weeks. The alternative — no rationing — is worse by every measure.

10.3 Person-years investment

Fuel allocation management is not free. Estimated staffing:

• National Resource Authority fuel division: 20–50 personnel
• Regional Fuel Controllers and staff: 100–200 personnel nationwide
• Fuel depot security: 200–500 personnel (may be military)
• Audit and compliance: 30–50 personnel
• Total: 350–800 person-years per year of operation

This is a significant commitment of human resources. It is justified because fuel allocation determines whether every other recovery activity can function. Without fuel management, there is no food distribution, no medical response, no gasifier construction, no agricultural production — no recovery.

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1. NZ’S FUEL INFRASTRUCTURE AND STOCK POSITION

1.1 The Marsden Point situation

Until April 2022, Marsden Point (Northland) operated NZ’s sole oil refinery, with a nameplate capacity of approximately 64,000 barrels per day — a small-to-medium refinery by global standards — processing imported crude oil into refined products.⁵ The refinery supplied roughly 65–70% of NZ’s fuel needs, with the balance imported as refined product through other ports.⁶

The refinery’s owner, Refining NZ (now Channel Infrastructure), converted the site to a fuel import terminal. The refining equipment has been decommissioned. Even if the physical hardware were still in place, restarting a mothballed refinery requires specialized catalysts, replacement parts, and technical expertise that would not be available under supply severance conditions. The refinery is gone as a capability. Planning must proceed on that basis.

What Marsden Point still provides: The site retains substantial tank farm capacity — approximately 280 million liters of storage across diesel, petrol, jet fuel, and fuel oil tanks.⁷ This storage continues to serve as a major fuel distribution hub for the upper North Island, receiving imported product by tanker and distributing it via the Refinery-to-Auckland Pipeline (RAP) and by coastal shipping and road tanker.

1.2 NZ’s fuel storage infrastructure

NZ’s fuel storage is distributed across multiple sites and ownership structures:

Major bulk terminals:

• Marsden Point (Channel Infrastructure) — ~280 million liters capacity⁸
• Mount Maunganui — bulk terminal serving Bay of Plenty
• Auckland (various terminals — Wiri, Wynyard) — largest demand center
• New Plymouth — historically connected to Taranaki oil production
• Wellington — port terminal
• Lyttelton (Christchurch)
• Dunedin/Port Chalmers
• Bluff/Invercargill
• Napier, Nelson, Timaru — smaller bulk terminals

Commercial storage: Operated by fuel companies (Z Energy, bp, Mobil) at distribution depots nationwide. Hundreds of smaller depots and tank farms.

Service stations: Approximately 1,300–1,400 service stations nationwide,⁹ each with underground storage typically ranging from 30,000–100,000 liters across multiple tanks. Total service station storage is estimated at 100–200 million liters nationwide.

On-farm storage: NZ farms commonly have on-site diesel tanks for tractors, irrigation pumps, and other equipment. Total volumes are not aggregated in any publicly available source — the Skills and Asset Census (Doc #8) would need to establish this figure. A rough estimate: if NZ has approximately 50,000 farms¹⁰ with average tank capacity of 2,000–5,000 liters, total on-farm storage might be 100–250 million liters, though many tanks would be partially full at any given time.

Marine bunkers: Fuel stored at ports for shipping.

Aviation fuel: Stored at airports — Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, and regional airports. Aviation fuel (Jet A-1) has good inherent stability and is valuable for strategic purposes.

1.3 Total stock estimate

Precise total fuel stocks at any given moment are commercially sensitive and not publicly available. NZ’s International Energy Agency (IEA) obligation requires minimum stockholding equivalent to 90 days of net imports — but NZ has historically struggled to meet this obligation and has relied on “tickets” (financial instruments representing offshore stocks) rather than physical in-country reserves.¹¹

Best available estimate of physical in-country stocks:

Product	Estimated in-country stock (million liters)	Normal annual consumption (million liters)	Days of normal consumption
Diesel	400–600	~3,800	38–58
Petrol (91/95)	300–500	~3,200	34–57
Jet fuel (Jet A-1)	100–200	~1,400	26–52
Fuel oil / marine	50–100	~400	46–91
LPG	30–60	~250	44–88
Total	~880–1,460	~9,050	~35–59

Basis for these estimates: These ranges combine publicly available IEA stockholding data for NZ, reported bulk terminal capacities, estimated service station and on-farm storage, and the assumption that stocks fluctuate between minimum (pre-delivery) and maximum (post-delivery) levels.¹² The ranges are wide because the actual figures are not publicly available. The Skills and Asset Census (Doc #8) and direct engagement with fuel companies under emergency powers would establish the real numbers within the first week.

Key uncertainty: At any given moment, NZ might hold as little as 3 weeks or as much as 8 weeks of normal consumption in physical in-country stocks. This uncertainty directly affects every timeline in this document. The government’s first action must be to establish the actual stock position.

1.4 Fuel degradation in storage

Petroleum products do not last forever in storage:

• Petrol: Without stabilizer, petrol degrades noticeably within 3–6 months. Oxidation produces gums and varnishes that damage engines. Fuel stabilizer additives (e.g., Sta-Bil) can extend usable life to 1–2 years. Ethanol-blended petrol (now standard in NZ) may degrade faster than straight petrol.¹³
• Diesel: More stable than petrol. Properly stored diesel remains usable for 6–12 months without additives, potentially longer with biocide treatment (to prevent microbial growth). Cold flow properties may change over time but are less critical in NZ’s temperate climate.¹⁴
• Jet A-1: Good inherent stability — designed for extended storage. Properly stored and periodically tested, Jet A-1 can remain usable for years. The military routinely stores jet fuel for extended periods.¹⁵
• LPG: Indefinite shelf life in sealed containers. No degradation concerns.

Implication: Petrol should be consumed first, within the first 6–12 months. Diesel can be held longer. Aviation fuel should be reserved for strategic use and stored long-term. LPG can be held indefinitely.

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2. CONSUMPTION MODELING BY SECTOR

2.1 Normal consumption breakdown

NZ’s petroleum consumption by sector under normal (pre-event) conditions:¹⁶

Sector	Primary fuel	Approximate annual consumption (million liters)	Share of total
Road transport — private vehicles	Petrol, diesel	~4,800	~53%
Road transport — commercial/freight	Diesel	~1,500	~17%
Agriculture	Diesel, petrol	~500	~6%
Aviation (domestic + international)	Jet A-1	~1,400	~15%
Marine/fishing	Diesel, fuel oil	~350	~4%
Industrial/heating	Diesel, fuel oil, LPG	~300	~3%
Military	Diesel, Jet A-1	~50	~1%
Other (generators, small engines, etc.)	Petrol, diesel	~150	~2%
Total		~9,050	100%

The key insight: Private vehicle use accounts for over half of NZ’s fuel consumption. Eliminating or severely restricting private vehicle use is the single most effective rationing measure.

2.2 Post-event consumption: What actually needs fuel?

Not all current fuel consumption serves essential functions. In a post-event environment, the question becomes: what must have petroleum fuel because no alternative exists?

Tier 1 — Immediately essential (no near-term substitute):

• Emergency services (ambulance, fire, police) — ~30–50 million liters/year
• Food distribution (trucks moving food from farms/warehouses to population centers) — ~200–400 million liters/year (estimate; actual figure depends on distribution network optimization)
• Medical transport and hospital generators — ~20–40 million liters/year
• Agricultural operations (tractors, harvesters, irrigation pumps — fuel is needed until wood gasifier or electric alternatives are operational) — ~300–500 million liters/year
• Cook Strait ferries (the inter-island link is essential — the South Island produces most of NZ’s food; the North Island holds approximately 77% of the population¹⁷; severing this connection produces a food-deficit North Island — Doc #137) — ~100–200 million liters/year at reduced service (3–4 crossings/day vs. 8–12)
• Fishing fleet (NZ’s fishing fleet provides critical protein — no near-term alternative to diesel for ocean-going vessels) — ~200–300 million liters/year
• Grid and infrastructure maintenance (line crews, repair vehicles, heavy equipment) — ~50–100 million liters/year
• Military/civil defence — ~30–50 million liters/year

Tier 1 total: ~930–1,640 million liters/year — a large range reflecting significant uncertainty in the post-event consumption profile.

Tier 2 — Important but deferrable or substitutable within months:

• Dairy collection (transition to electric collection vehicles — Doc #55 — takes months to implement; fuel is a bridge) — ~50–100 million liters/year
• Forestry operations (critical for wood gasifier fuel supply — Doc #56 — but can prioritize sites near existing operations) — ~50–100 million liters/year
• Coastal shipping (fuel bridge until sail capability develops) — ~50–100 million liters/year
• Essential passenger transport (workers to essential job sites where no public transport exists) — ~50–200 million liters/year

Tier 2 total: ~200–500 million liters/year

Tier 3 — Non-essential (eliminate immediately):

• Private recreational driving
• Aviation (international routes are irrelevant; domestic can be severely curtailed)
• Non-essential freight
• All tourism-related transport
• Non-essential industrial heating (switch to wood, electricity where possible)

Tier 3 reduction: eliminates ~5,000–6,000 million liters/year of normal consumption

2.3 Post-event essential consumption estimate

Under strict rationing (Tier 1 only), annual petroleum consumption drops to roughly 930–1,640 million liters/year — approximately 10–18% of normal consumption. Under moderate rationing (Tiers 1 + 2), consumption is approximately 1,130–2,140 million liters/year, or 12–24% of normal.

Daily consumption under rationing:

Scenario	Annual (million liters)	Daily (million liters)
Normal (pre-event)	~9,050	~24.8
Strict rationing (Tier 1 only)	930–1,640	2.5–4.5
Moderate rationing (Tiers 1+2)	1,130–2,140	3.1–5.9
First week (chaotic, partial rationing)	—	~10–15 (estimate)

2.4 Transition effects

Post-event consumption does not remain static. As alternative fuels and electrification come online, petroleum demand decreases:

• Months 1–3: Wood gasifier prototypes constructed and tested (Doc #56). No significant petroleum displacement yet.
• Months 3–6: First gasifier-converted vehicles and stationary engines operational. Small petroleum displacement — perhaps 5–10%.
• Months 6–12: Gasifier production scaling. Electric vehicle conversions beginning (Doc #54). Some agricultural equipment converted. Petroleum displacement growing to perhaps 15–30%.
• Year 1–2: Hundreds to thousands of gasifiers in operation. Significant fleet converted. Petroleum consumption drops to perhaps 50–70% of initial rationed levels.
• Year 2–3: Wood gas, biodiesel (Doc #57), and electric alternatives cover most land transport needs. Petroleum reserved primarily for fishing fleet, aviation reserve, and applications where alternatives are not yet viable. Petroleum consumption perhaps 20–40% of initial rationed levels.

These are estimates, not projections. The actual transition speed depends on variables that cannot be determined in advance — workshop capacity, steel availability, training speed, nuclear winter effects on forestry, institutional competence in managing the transition.

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3. DRAWDOWN PROJECTIONS

3.1 Scenario modeling

The following scenarios model stock depletion under different assumptions about initial stock levels and rationing severity. All scenarios assume fuel degradation is managed through stabilizers and prioritized consumption (petrol first, diesel second, jet fuel reserved).

Scenario A: Low initial stocks (880 million liters), strict rationing

Month	Opening stock (ML)	Monthly consumption (ML)	Notes
0–1	880	300–450	Chaotic first week, rationing implemented ~day 3–7
1–3	430–580	70–120/month	Strict rationing in effect. Gasifier prototypes under construction.
3–6	220–460	60–100/month	First gasifiers operational. Modest displacement.
6–12	0–280	45–80/month	Growing displacement from alternatives.

Result: Under low initial stocks and strict rationing, petroleum stocks are exhausted between months 6–12. There is no comfortable margin.

Scenario B: Medium initial stocks (1,170 million liters), strict rationing

Month	Opening stock (ML)	Monthly consumption (ML)	Notes
0–1	1,170	300–450	Same chaotic first month
1–6	720–870	60–100/month	Strict rationing. Gasifier construction scaling.
6–12	270–570	45–80/month	Significant alternative fuel displacement.
12–18	0–330	30–50/month	Most land transport converted. Petroleum for fishing, aviation.

Result: Stocks last 12–18 months. This is the range where the transition becomes feasible — enough petroleum to bridge to alternatives for most applications.

Scenario C: High initial stocks (1,460 million liters), strict rationing

Stocks last approximately 15–24 months under similar modeling. More breathing room, but the first month’s consumption is the same regardless — the chaotic period burns through the same fuel.

Scenario D: Medium stocks (1,170 ML), moderate rationing (Tiers 1+2)

Stocks last approximately 8–14 months. The additional Tier 2 consumption shortens the window by 3–5 months compared to strict rationing.

Scenario E: No rationing (catastrophic)

At normal consumption rates (~750 million liters/month), even high initial stocks are exhausted in under 8 weeks. Avoiding this outcome is the primary purpose of rationing.

3.2 The critical first week

The first week is disproportionately important. Under normal consumption patterns, NZ burns through approximately 170 million liters per week. Even partial panic-buying and generator use could push the first week’s consumption higher than normal. The difference between implementing rationing on day 1 versus day 7 is roughly 100–170 million liters of irreplaceable fuel — equivalent to one to two additional months of rationed supply.

This is why fuel rationing must be the government’s first economic action, within 24–48 hours of event confirmation. Not because rhetoric demands it, but because the arithmetic does.

3.3 Sensitivity analysis

The drawdown projections are most sensitive to:

1. Actual initial stock levels. The difference between 880 ML and 1,460 ML is approximately 6–8 months of rationed supply. Establishing the real number within the first week is essential.

2. Speed of rationing implementation. Each day of delay costs 20–25 million liters. A one-week delay costs roughly one additional month of rationed supply.

3. Agricultural fuel demand. Agriculture is the largest Tier 1 consumer and the hardest to reduce without affecting food production. If agricultural consumption is higher than estimated (because nuclear winter conditions require more mechanical intervention), the drawdown accelerates.

4. Fishing fleet demand. NZ’s fishing fleet provides irreplaceable protein. Reducing fishing fleet fuel means less protein for the population. There is no good near-term alternative fuel for ocean-going fishing vessels — wood gasification is impractical for marine use (see Doc #56, Section 4.3).

5. Transition speed to alternatives. If wood gasifier construction is slower than projected (material shortages, skill gaps, design problems), petroleum stocks must carry the load longer. If faster, the drawdown eases.

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4. ALLOCATION FRAMEWORK

4.1 Allocation tiers

Fuel allocation must be rationed by priority tier. Not all users receive fuel; those who do receive only what their function requires.

Tier 1 — Non-discretionary (allocated first):

Use	Allocation basis	Estimated monthly draw (ML)
Hospital generators and medical transport	Facility-based allocation, verified by DHB/Te Whatu Ora	2–4
Emergency services (ambulance, fire, police)	Fleet-based allocation per vehicle	3–5
Food distribution — primary (farm to warehouse, warehouse to retail)	Route-based allocation	15–30
Water supply and wastewater (where pump stations require diesel backup)	Facility-based	2–5
Grid maintenance and repair crews	Team-based allocation	4–8
Cook Strait ferries (inter-island food/freight — Doc #137)	Crossing-based allocation, 3–4 sailings/day	8–15
Fishing fleet (protein supply)	Vessel-based allocation, catch-weighted	15–25

Tier 2 — Essential but manageable:

Use	Allocation basis	Estimated monthly draw (ML)
Agricultural operations (tractor, harvest, irrigation)	Farm-based allocation tied to production	25–40
Dairy collection (bridge to electric — Doc #55)	Route-based, declining as electrification proceeds	5–10
Forestry (wood gasifier fuel supply chain — Doc #56)	Priority for gasifier fuel supply	5–10
Coastal shipping	Vessel-based, route essential	5–10
Military/civil defence	Command allocation	3–5
Essential worker transport (where no alternative exists)	Individual permits, audited	5–15

Tier 3 — Strategic reserve:

Use	Allocation basis	Notes
Aviation fuel reserve	Sealed, tested periodically	For NZ-Australia flights, medical evacuation, strategic reconnaissance. Allocate only by Cabinet decision.
Marine strategic reserve	Long-term storage, fuel oil and diesel	For sail-trade support, emergency response, future Pacific operations.
General contingency	Held back from all allocations	10% of remaining stock held against unforeseen needs.

Tier 4 — Civilian discretionary:

Any fuel remaining after Tiers 1–3 are satisfied may be allocated to civilian use through a coupon or fuel card system. Realistically, this allocation will be zero or near-zero for most of the drawdown period. People should not expect private vehicle fuel access.

4.2 Allocation mechanics

Physical control: All bulk fuel storage transferred to government control under emergency powers (CDEM Act — see Doc #1, Section 2). Service stations operate under government allocation — they receive deliveries based on regional allocation authority decisions, not commercial ordering.

Distribution: The existing fuel distribution network (tanker trucks, pipeline, coastal shipping) continues to operate under government direction. Fuel company employees continue their roles under government allocation rules. The government does not need to build new distribution infrastructure — it needs to redirect existing infrastructure.

Fuel cards/coupons: Each authorized user receives a fuel allocation tied to their function. Mechanically, this could be implemented through:

• Modified EFTPOS systems at service stations (if electronic infrastructure is functional — likely in the baseline scenario)
• Physical coupon books (backup if electronic systems fail)
• Fleet fuel cards for institutional users (emergency services, agriculture, fishing)

Monitoring: Fuel companies already track volumes through their distribution systems. Government oversight means access to this data plus auditing authority. Discrepancies between allocated and consumed volumes flag possible diversion.

4.3 Regional allocation

Fuel must be distributed regionally based on actual need, not population or pre-event consumption patterns. Factors:

• Agricultural intensity: Regions with higher agricultural output require more farm fuel. Canterbury, Waikato, and Southland are major agricultural regions.
• Fishing port proximity: Regions with active fishing fleets (Nelson, Timaru, Bluff, Tauranga, Gisborne) require marine fuel allocation.
• Hospital and medical facility distribution: Regional hospital support.
• Grid maintenance needs: Distributed based on infrastructure density and condition.
• Distance from alternatives: Regions near plantation forests (Bay of Plenty, Waikato, Gisborne, Northland, Central North Island) can transition to wood gas sooner. Regions further from forests may need petroleum longer.

Regional allocation is managed by Regional Fuel Controllers (embedded within existing CDEM regional structures) reporting to the National Resource Authority (Doc #1, Section 4).

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5. TRANSITION TIMELINE TO ALTERNATIVE FUELS

5.1 The petroleum bridge

Petroleum is a bridge fuel — it keeps essential services running while NZ transitions to alternatives. The bridge must be long enough for alternatives to reach meaningful scale. If the bridge is too short (because stocks were wasted or rationing was too late), the transition gap causes critical service failures.

The alternatives that must come online during the petroleum bridge:

Alternative	Primary application	Timeline to meaningful scale	Petroleum displaced
Wood gasification (Doc #56)	Land transport, stationary engines	3–12 months	Diesel and petrol for trucks, farm equipment, generators
Electric vehicle conversion (Doc #54)	Light vehicles, dairy collection	6–18 months	Petrol and diesel for light fleet
Biodiesel from tallow (Doc #57)	Diesel engines, possibly fishing fleet	6–18 months	Diesel (partial — constrained by methanol supply; cold-weather performance inferior to petroleum diesel due to higher gel point, ~0°C vs. -15°C for standard diesel)
Existing EV fleet	Light transport	Immediate (already charged from grid)	Petrol
Bicycle fleet (Doc #59)	Short-distance personal transport	Immediate to weeks	Petrol
Electric rail (existing + expansion — Doc #61)	Freight, passenger corridors	Existing lines immediately; expansion years	Diesel
Sail / wind-assisted marine (Doc #58)	Coastal shipping	1–3 years	Marine diesel

5.2 Sector-by-sector transition path

Private transport: Effectively ceases for most people within the first weeks due to fuel rationing. Replaced by cycling (Doc #59), walking, existing public transport (electric rail and bus where available), and community-organized carpooling for essential trips. NZ’s existing EV fleet (estimated at 80,000–100,000 registered EVs as of early 2025, growing pre-event)¹⁸ continues operating on grid power — these vehicles become disproportionately valuable and should be redistributed to essential services if owners consent or under requisition.

Freight transport: Transitions from diesel trucks to a combination of:

• Wood gas trucks (converted diesel trucks running dual-fuel — Doc #56, Section 4.1)
• Electric rail for main trunk routes (existing electrified rail, plus expansion over years — Doc #61)
• Biodiesel for routes where wood gas conversion is impractical
• Coastal shipping (sail-assisted, developing over years — Doc #58)

This transition takes 1–3 years to reach meaningful scale. Diesel must bridge the gap.

Agriculture: The hardest sector to transition because farm equipment operates in dispersed locations, often far from the grid, and requires sustained power for heavy work (plowing, harvesting). Transition path:

• Wood gasifiers on stationary farm engines (irrigation pumps, grain processing) — months 3–12
• Tractor conversion to wood gas (dual-fuel diesel) — months 6–18
• Electric tractors (converted from existing tractors using EV components) — years 1–3
• Horse and manual labor for some operations — a realistic partial substitute for light cultivation, seeding, and short-haul transport, though with a productivity reduction of roughly 80–95% compared to mechanized farming (a single tractor replaces 10–20 draft horses for plowing; harvest operations are even more asymmetric)¹⁹

Agricultural fuel demand declines as these alternatives come online, but some petroleum demand may persist for 2–3 years.

Fishing: The most difficult transition. Ocean-going fishing vessels cannot practically run on wood gas (space, weight, reliability — Doc #56, Section 4.3). Biodiesel from tallow (Doc #57) is the most promising alternative but production volumes depend on methanol supply, which itself requires wood gasification infrastructure. Biodiesel also has lower energy density than petroleum diesel (~33 MJ/L vs. ~38 MJ/L), reducing vessel range by approximately 10–15% per tank, and its higher gel point makes it problematic for vessels operating in southern waters during winter without blending or tank heating.²⁰ Sail-assisted fishing is possible for coastal operations but severely limits range and catch. Petroleum for the fishing fleet may need to be prioritized until biodiesel production reaches scale — potentially 1–2 years.

Cook Strait ferries: The inter-island link cannot be interrupted — it connects the food-surplus South Island to the food-deficit North Island (Doc #137). Under rationing, ferry service drops from 8–12 daily crossings to 3–4,²¹ running only full sailings with cargo prioritized over vehicles. Even at reduced service, the ferries consume an estimated 8–15 million liters/month of marine diesel (estimate based on vessel fuel consumption rates for large roll-on/roll-off ferries operating the 92 km Cook Strait crossing; actual figures would need to be confirmed with KiwiRail/Interislander and StraitNZ/Bluebridge). The transition path is: reduced diesel service (months 0–12), sail-assist retrofit of existing vessels (year 1–2), purpose-built sail cargo vessels (years 2–5), and potential electric or hybrid propulsion using grid power (Doc #137, Section 5.3). Ferry fuel is one of the last petroleum allocations to be cut — the inter-island link must remain functional throughout the transition.

Aviation: Effectively ends for routine use. Aviation fuel is reserved for strategic missions only: NZ-Australia contact flights, medical evacuation, surveillance. NZ’s aviation fuel stocks, if stabilized and sealed, might support limited strategic flights for 5–10 years (Doc #62). There is no foreseeable local substitute for jet fuel at the performance level required for aviation.²²

5.3 What the transition actually looks like

The transition is not a clean handover from one fuel to another. It is a messy, overlapping process where:

• Some regions transition faster than others (depending on local workshop capacity, forest access, grid proximity)
• Some applications prove harder to convert than expected (specific engine types, specific duty cycles)
• Alternative fuels have significant performance penalties (wood gas vehicles lose 30–50% power — Doc #56; biodiesel in cold weather gels more readily)
• The transition creates new dependencies (gasifier maintenance skills, wood fuel supply chains, electrode supply for welding gasifier construction)
• Setbacks happen — a design flaw in a standardized gasifier, a steel supply interruption, a region that cannot source dry wood

Planners should model the transition as a gradual curve, not a sharp inflection. Petroleum stocks must last through the messy middle period where alternatives are growing but not yet reliable at scale.

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6. STRATEGIC FUEL RESERVES

6.1 What to hold back

Not all fuel should be allocated to current operations. A strategic reserve must be maintained for:

Aviation reserve (Jet A-1): 50–100 million liters, sealed in dedicated storage, tested annually. This enables strategic aviation capability for years — NZ-Australia flights, medical evacuation, aerial survey. Release only by Cabinet decision. Jet A-1’s inherent stability makes it the best candidate for long-term storage.²³

Marine strategic reserve (diesel): 30–50 million liters, maintained for emergency maritime operations — disaster response, strategic cargo runs, military patrol. Drawn down only when biodiesel or sail alternatives are proven at sea.

General contingency reserve: 10% of remaining stocks at any time, held against unforeseen needs — a regional emergency, a failed alternative fuel program, a military requirement. This buffer shrinks as total stocks shrink, but maintaining it provides insurance against the unexpected.

LPG reserve: LPG stores indefinitely and has high utility for medical and laboratory applications (sterilization, heating, precise temperature control). A portion of LPG stocks should be reserved for medical and scientific use rather than consumed for general heating.

6.2 Storage management

Long-term storage of petroleum requires active management:

• Tank integrity: Regular inspection for leaks, corrosion, and water ingress. Water in fuel promotes microbial growth (diesel) and degradation (petrol).
• Fuel rotation: Oldest stock consumed first. New allocations drawn from oldest tanks.
• Stabilizer treatment: Petrol treated with fuel stabilizer at requisition. Diesel treated with biocide.
• Testing: Periodic fuel quality testing — particularly for stocks held more than 6 months. Basic fuel testing (water content, particulates, visual inspection) can be done with simple equipment. More sophisticated testing (octane, cetane, gum content) requires laboratory capability.
• Security: Fuel storage sites are high-value targets for theft. Physical security — fencing, lighting, personnel — is needed at all bulk storage locations. The incentive to steal fuel will be very high once rationing is in effect.

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7. INTEGRATION WITH OTHER DOCUMENTS

This document does not exist in isolation. Its assumptions and projections depend on, and feed into, several other Recovery Library documents:

Document	Relationship
Doc #1 — National Emergency Stockpile Strategy	Parent framework. Fuel is Category A (wholesale requisition) + Category B (controlled retail distribution).
Doc #2 — Public Communication	Messaging framework for fuel rationing. Essential for compliance.
Doc #3 — Food Rationing	Food distribution depends on fuel for transport. Fuel allocation and food distribution must be coordinated.
Doc #156 — Skills Census	Establishes actual fuel stocks, workshop capacity for gasifier construction, farm fuel holdings.
Doc #33 — Tire Management	Vehicle operations consume both fuel and tires. Fuel rationing naturally reduces tire wear.
Doc #54 — Emergency Vehicle Electrification	Reduces petroleum demand as conversions come online.
Doc #55 — Electric Milk Collection	Reduces diesel demand for dairy collection.
Doc #56 — Wood Gasification	The primary petroleum substitute for land transport and stationary engines. Transition timing directly affects drawdown.
Doc #57 — Biodiesel from NZ Tallow	Diesel substitute, particularly relevant for fishing fleet.
Doc #58 — Coastal Shipping	Sail-assisted coastal shipping reduces marine fuel demand.
Doc #137 — Cook Strait Link	Inter-island ferry fuel is a Tier 1 allocation. Ferry service must transition from diesel to sail/electric as stocks deplete.
Doc #59 — Bicycle Fleet	Immediate petroleum displacement for short-distance transport.
Doc #61 — Electric Rail	Freight rail reduces diesel demand for trucking corridors.
Doc #62 — Aviation Capability Window	Determines how aviation fuel reserve is drawn down.
Doc #144 — Emergency Powers	Legal framework for requisition and rationing.

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8. CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

Uncertainty	Why it matters	How to resolve
Actual in-country fuel stocks	Every timeline in this document depends on the starting number.	Immediate inventory under emergency powers — MBIE + fuel companies. First priority of the National Resource Authority.
Speed of rationing implementation	Each day of delay costs 20–25 ML.	Pre-event planning if possible. Emergency broadcast and enforcement within 24–48 hours.
Agricultural fuel efficiency under nuclear winter	Cooler conditions may change crop patterns, increase mechanical intervention needs.	Monitor and adjust allocations based on actual field conditions.
Fishing fleet fuel demand	Depends on catch rates, which depend on marine ecosystem changes under nuclear winter.	Adaptive allocation based on actual catch data. Reduce allocation if catch rates drop.
Wood gasifier transition speed	Depends on workshop capacity, steel supply, design success, training speed.	Prototype quickly, iterate, prepare contingency allocation if transition is slower than planned.
Fuel degradation in storage	Especially petrol — degraded fuel damages engines.	Stabilizer treatment, testing, consume petrol first.
Compliance with rationing	Low compliance compresses all timelines.	Fair system, clear communication (Doc #2), visible enforcement, transparent allocation.
EV fleet condition and redistribution	Existing EVs can displace some petroleum, but how many are in good condition and where?	Census (Doc #8).

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APPENDIX A: FUEL PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS AND STORAGE

Product	Typical NZ grade	Energy content (MJ/liter)	Storage life (untreated)	Storage life (treated)	Storage notes
Petrol	91 RON, 95 RON	~34	3–6 months	12–24 months (with stabilizer)	Volatile — store sealed, cool. Ethanol blends degrade faster.
Diesel	Standard automotive	~38	6–12 months	12–24+ months (with biocide)	Microbial growth in warm, humid conditions. Water is the enemy.
Jet A-1	Standard	~35	12+ months	Years (with periodic testing)	Good inherent stability. Designed for extended storage.
Fuel oil	Heavy, marine	~40	Years	Years	Very stable. Limited applications post-event.
LPG	Propane/butane	~26 (liquid)	Indefinite	Indefinite	Sealed containers. No degradation.

APPENDIX B: KEY NZ FUEL INFRASTRUCTURE LOCATIONS

Note: This list is illustrative, not exhaustive. A complete inventory would require data from fuel companies under emergency powers.

North Island:

• Marsden Point (Northland) — bulk import terminal, major storage. Pipeline to Auckland (RAP).
• Wiri (Auckland) — distribution terminal. RAP pipeline terminus.
• Wynyard (Auckland) — port terminal.
• Mount Maunganui (Tauranga) — bulk import terminal.
• New Plymouth — historic connection to Taranaki production. Storage.
• Napier — port terminal.
• Wellington — port terminal, pipeline from Woolston (local distribution).

South Island:

• Lyttelton (Christchurch) — bulk import terminal.
• Timaru — port terminal.
• Dunedin/Port Chalmers — port terminal.
• Bluff — port terminal, strategic for Southland.
• Nelson — port terminal.

Pipeline infrastructure:

• Refinery-to-Auckland Pipeline (RAP): Marsden Point to Wiri, Auckland. Approximately 170 km. Carries refined product.²⁴
• Local distribution pipelines at some port terminals.

APPENDIX C: RATIONING IMPLEMENTATION CHECKLIST

Pre-event preparation (if this document is distributed before a catastrophe):

• Identify all bulk fuel storage locations and ownership
• Pre-negotiate government access agreements with fuel companies
• Draft emergency fuel control orders under CDEM/Emergency Management Act
• Pre-position fuel allocation card/coupon systems
• Identify Regional Fuel Controller candidates
• Stock fuel stabilizer in bulk

Post-event, first 48 hours:

• Activate emergency fuel moratorium (broadcast + enforcement)
• Secure all bulk storage facilities
• Contact fuel companies — establish reporting and cooperation
• Activate pipeline and port security
• Issue emergency allocation for Tier 1 users

Post-event, first week:

• Complete inventory of all bulk fuel stocks
• Implement Tier 1 allocation system
• Begin fuel stabilizer treatment of petrol stocks
• Assess on-farm fuel stocks (via regional coordinators)
• Establish National Resource Authority fuel division

Post-event, first month:

• Implement Tier 2 allocation
• Designate and seal strategic reserves (aviation, marine, contingency)
• Fuel audit system operational
• First drawdown projection based on actual data
• Coordinate with gasifier construction program (Doc #56)

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1. MBIE, “Energy in New Zealand,” annual publication. https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-n... — NZ consumed approximately 8.8 billion liters of petroleum products in 2022 (most recent comprehensive data available). Breakdown by product type and sector available in MBIE’s detailed data tables.↩︎

2. IEA Oil Market Report and NZ stockholding data. NZ’s physical in-country stocks are not publicly reported in precise terms. The 3–4 week estimate at normal consumption rates is based on IEA reporting and industry commentary. Actual stocks fluctuate with import shipment timing — NZ may hold more immediately after a tanker delivery and less between deliveries.↩︎

3. Channel Infrastructure (formerly Refining NZ) Annual Report, 2022. The refinery processed its last crude oil in March 2022 and the conversion to import-only terminal was completed in April 2022. https://www.channelinfrastructure.nz/ — The conversion was a commercial decision driven by global refinery economics, not government policy. It was controversial in NZ, with energy security concerns raised at the time.↩︎

4. Fuel stabilizer products (e.g., Sta-Bil, STP) are petroleum-distillate-based additives that inhibit oxidation and gum formation in stored petrol. NZ imports all such products. Domestic inventory is limited to retail stock at auto parts stores (Repco, Supercheap Auto, etc.) and bulk holdings at fuel distribution companies. No publicly available data quantifies total NZ stocks. Treatment rates are typically 30–60 mL per 10 liters of petrol (product-dependent), meaning treating 300–500 million liters of petrol stocks would require 900,000–3,000,000 liters of stabilizer — likely far exceeding in-country supply.↩︎

5. Channel Infrastructure (formerly Refining NZ) Annual Report, 2022. The refinery processed its last crude oil in March 2022 and the conversion to import-only terminal was completed in April 2022. https://www.channelinfrastructure.nz/ — The conversion was a commercial decision driven by global refinery economics, not government policy. It was controversial in NZ, with energy security concerns raised at the time.↩︎

6. MBIE energy data and Refining NZ historical annual reports. The refinery’s contribution to NZ fuel supply varied by year but was typically 65–70% of domestic demand, with the balance imported as refined product through various ports.↩︎

7. Channel Infrastructure public disclosures and environmental consent documents. Tank farm capacity figures are approximate and based on publicly available information. Actual operational capacity (accounting for tank condition, maintenance schedules, and product segregation requirements) may differ.↩︎

8. Channel Infrastructure public disclosures and environmental consent documents. Tank farm capacity figures are approximate and based on publicly available information. Actual operational capacity (accounting for tank condition, maintenance schedules, and product segregation requirements) may differ.↩︎

9. MBIA (Motor Trade Association) and fuel company public data. The exact number of service stations fluctuates as sites open and close. Underground storage capacity per station varies significantly.↩︎

10. Stats NZ, “Agricultural Production Statistics.” NZ had approximately 52,000 farms as of the most recent agricultural census. Farm numbers have been declining over decades through consolidation. The figure is approximate and the average on-farm fuel storage capacity is an estimate — actual figures vary enormously between small lifestyle blocks and large pastoral or arable operations.↩︎

11. NZ’s IEA stockholding compliance has been the subject of MBIE reports and Parliamentary questions. NZ’s 90-day obligation was historically met partly through “ticket” arrangements with overseas stockholders — financial instruments that do not represent physical fuel in NZ. The proportion of physical vs. ticket-based compliance is an important uncertainty for this document. See MBIE, “New Zealand’s Oil Emergency Response Strategy,” 2019.↩︎

12. The stock estimates in this document are constructed from publicly available data and involve significant uncertainty. They should be treated as order-of-magnitude estimates for planning purposes, not as precise figures. The actual stock position must be established through emergency inventory.↩︎

13. Fuel degradation chemistry is well-documented in petroleum industry literature. Key references: ASTM D4814 (Standard Specification for Automotive Spark-Ignition Engine Fuel), ASTM D975 (Standard Specification for Diesel Fuel). Practical guidance: Chevron, “Diesel Fuels Technical Review,” 2007; BP, “Fuel News,” various technical bulletins. Ethanol-blended petrol (E10, now standard in NZ) is generally considered less stable in storage than straight petrol due to phase separation risk in the presence of water.↩︎

14. Fuel degradation chemistry is well-documented in petroleum industry literature. Key references: ASTM D4814 (Standard Specification for Automotive Spark-Ignition Engine Fuel), ASTM D975 (Standard Specification for Diesel Fuel). Practical guidance: Chevron, “Diesel Fuels Technical Review,” 2007; BP, “Fuel News,” various technical bulletins. Ethanol-blended petrol (E10, now standard in NZ) is generally considered less stable in storage than straight petrol due to phase separation risk in the presence of water.↩︎

15. US military fuel storage experience is documented in military logistics literature. Jet A-1 is specified to ASTM D1655 and Joint Inspection Group (JIG) standards, which include storage stability requirements. US military routinely stores jet fuel for extended periods with periodic testing.↩︎

16. MBIE, “Energy in New Zealand,” annual publication. https://www.mbie.govt.nz/building-and-energy/energy-and-n... — NZ consumed approximately 8.8 billion liters of petroleum products in 2022 (most recent comprehensive data available). Breakdown by product type and sector available in MBIE’s detailed data tables.↩︎

17. Stats NZ, “2018 Census.” The North Island had approximately 3.7 million residents out of NZ’s total population of approximately 4.8 million (77%). Updated population estimates continue to show a similar distribution. https://www.stats.govt.nz/↩︎

18. NZ EV registration data from Ministry of Transport and Waka Kotahi NZTA. NZ’s EV fleet grew rapidly in 2022–2024, driven by the Clean Car Discount scheme (subsequently modified). Exact fleet size at any future event date is uncertain — tens of thousands of battery EVs plus plug-in hybrids. The Ministry of Transport publishes monthly registration data.↩︎

19. Productivity comparison between mechanized and animal/manual farming is well-documented in agricultural history literature. A modern tractor can plow 2–4 hectares per hour; a two-horse team plows approximately 0.2–0.4 hectares per day. See Smil, V., “Energy and Civilization: A History” (MIT Press, 2017), Chapter 5, for systematic comparisons. NZ’s draft horse population is minimal — the horse stock would need to be built from existing pleasure and sport horses, with breeding and training timelines of 2–4 years.↩︎

20. Biodiesel (fatty acid methyl ester, FAME) from tallow has a cloud point of approximately 10–15°C and a pour point near 0°C, compared to standard petroleum diesel at -15°C or lower. Energy density is approximately 33 MJ/L vs. 38 MJ/L for petroleum diesel. See Knothe, G., “Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel: A Comparison,” Progress in Energy and Combustion Science, 2010. Performance in marine engines is generally acceptable but requires fuel system modifications for cold-weather operation.↩︎

21. KiwiRail (Interislander) and StraitNZ (Bluebridge) operate combined Cook Strait ferry services. Pre-event, Interislander runs approximately 4–6 sailings per day and Bluebridge runs approximately 4 sailings per day, for a combined total of 8–10+ daily crossings. Under rationing, a reduced service of 3–4 crossings per day would prioritize freight and essential cargo over private vehicle transport.↩︎

22. There is no practical local substitute for aviation turbine fuel (Jet A-1). Synthetic aviation fuel from Fischer-Tropsch synthesis of coal or biomass-derived syngas is theoretically possible but requires industrial infrastructure NZ does not have and could not build in the relevant timeframe. Bioethanol can substitute in piston aircraft engines (with modification) but not in jet turbines.↩︎

23. US military fuel storage experience is documented in military logistics literature. Jet A-1 is specified to ASTM D1655 and Joint Inspection Group (JIG) standards, which include storage stability requirements. US military routinely stores jet fuel for extended periods with periodic testing.↩︎

24. The Refinery-to-Auckland Pipeline (RAP) is owned and operated by Channel Infrastructure. It carries refined product from the Marsden Point terminal to the Wiri fuel distribution terminal in south Auckland. The pipeline’s continued operation is essential for upper North Island fuel supply. It requires electricity for pump stations and periodic maintenance — both feasible under the baseline scenario.↩︎