Consumer Goods Import Dependency Data

Recovery Library — Computed Reference Data

Methodology note: All values in this document are estimates derived from Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade data, MBIE business statistics, and NZ industry reports. Import values reflect approximate annual averages for 2021–2023. Stockpile estimates assume normal consumption rates and do not account for accelerated drawdown under emergency conditions, which would substantially shorten depletion timelines. Figures should be treated as order-of-magnitude estimates, not precise measurements. Distinguish carefully between import value (NZD) and import volume (physical units); the two diverge significantly for high-value finished goods versus bulk raw materials.

Assumptions: NZ population 5.1 million. Baseline scenario: grid functional, road transport intact, domestic agriculture continuing. These tables inform Doc #009 (Textile and Household Goods) of the Recovery Library.


Table 1: NZ Import Dependency by Consumer Goods Category

Annual import values and estimated pipeline stockpile at normal consumption. Stockpile months estimate combines goods in transit, warehouse stock, and retail inventory; it does not include goods already in household possession. [Source: Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade Data, 2022–2023]

Category Annual Import Value (NZD) % Imported % Domestic Est. Stockpile (months) Notes
Clothing & apparel $2.1 billion 97% 3% 2–3 Virtually no domestic garment manufacturing
Footwear $620 million 99% 1% 3–4 No significant domestic production
Textiles (raw & fabric) $480 million 72% 28% 3–5 Wool fabric domestic; synthetics all imported
Household appliances $1.4 billion 100% 0% 4–6 Assembly only; no domestic component mfg
Paper & cardboard products $890 million 55% 45% 2–4 Domestic pulp mills supply some categories
Soap, detergent & cleaning $310 million 68% 32% 4–6 Some domestic blending from imported base chemicals
Plastic goods & packaging $1.1 billion 91% 9% 2–4 Domestic recycling/moulding; feedstock all imported
Rubber & rubber products $420 million 98% 2% 3–6 Includes tyres; NZ has no rubber plantations
Cookware & kitchenware $180 million 99% 1% 6–12 Long replacement cycle extends effective stockpile
Tools & hardware $870 million 95% 5% 6–18 Durable goods; household stock significant
Candles & lighting goods $38 million 85% 15% 6–12 Small domestic producers; beeswax and tallow available
Bedding & linen $290 million 96% 4% 6–12 Wool batting domestic; fabric imported

Import percentages by value, not volume. Domestic figures include goods manufactured in NZ from imported inputs — true domestic content (using NZ raw materials throughout) is lower. [Source: Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade Data, 2023; MBIE Manufacturing Statistics, 2022]


Table 2: Textile Fiber Sources

NZ domestic fiber availability and import dependency. ‘Substitution potential’ refers to the degree to which domestic production could replace imported fiber within 1–3 years, assuming labour and equipment availability. [Source: Wool Research Organisation of NZ; Stats NZ Livestock Survey, 2023]

Fiber NZ Domestic Availability Import Dependency Substitution Potential Est. Import Depletion Notes
Wool (raw) High — ~100,000 tonnes/yr shorn Negligible (net exporter) Excellent — existing infrastructure N/A (domestic surplus) NZ exports ~80% of clip; domestic processing capacity limited
Wool (yarn & fabric) Moderate — small domestic mills ~40% of finished wool textiles Good — mills exist, need scaling 6–12 months finished goods Wools of NZ and craft sector provide some capacity
Cotton (raw) None — not grown in NZ climate 100% Poor — climate unsuitable 3–6 months Linen (flax) is the most viable warm-climate substitute
Cotton (fabric & yarn) None 100% Poor short-term; medium long-term via linen 2–4 months pipeline Largest single textile import category by volume
Polyester None — requires petrochemical feedstock 100% None without industrial chemistry 3–6 months Recycled polyester from existing garments is partial bridge
Nylon None 100% None without industrial chemistry 4–8 months Critical for hosiery, rope, and technical textiles
Linen (flax fibre) Low — harakeke (NZ flax) abundant but unprocessed ~90% of processed linen Good long-term — retting and scutching can be revived 1–3 months processed Harakeke processing knowledge exists in Maori weaving traditions
Leather High — byproduct of meat industry (~3M hides/yr) ~30% (finished leather goods) Good — tanneries existed historically 6–12 months finished goods Vegetable tanning feasible with NZ bark sources (manuka, etc.)
Hemp fibre Low — licensed cultivation small-scale ~95% Moderate — climate suitable, regulations permitting 1–3 months Hemp policy liberalisation would accelerate domestic production

Table 3: Clothing Depletion Estimates by Category

Per-capita stock estimates based on NZ Household Economic Survey data and industry consumption figures. ‘Extended-use lifetime’ assumes careful maintenance (repair, washing in cold water, avoiding UV degradation) rather than normal wear patterns. ‘Rationing allocation’ is a suggested annual per-capita provision under a formal rationing regime, prioritising functional need over variety. [Source: Stats NZ Household Economic Survey 2019; MBIE Retail Trade Statistics]

Category Est. Per-Capita Stock (items) Normal Replacement Cycle Extended-Use Lifetime Rationing Allocation (per year)
Outerwear (coats, jackets) 3–5 items 3–5 years 10–20 years 0.2 items (1 per 5 years)
Mid-layer (jerseys, fleece) 4–8 items 2–4 years 8–15 years 0.3 items (1 per 3 years)
Shirts & tops 10–20 items 1–2 years 5–10 years 1 item
Trousers & skirts 4–8 items 1–2 years 5–10 years 0.5 items
Underwear 7–14 items 6–12 months 2–4 years 2 items
Socks & hosiery 10–20 pairs 3–6 months 2–5 years 3 pairs (darning assumed)
Workwear & protective clothing 2–4 items 1–2 years 5–8 years 0.5 items (priority for essential workers)
Children’s clothing (0–12 yr) 15–25 items 6–12 months 2–3 years 3 items (growth allowance)
Footwear (general) 3–6 pairs 1–2 years 5–10 years 0.5 pairs (resoleable preferred)
Footwear (work/safety boots) 1–2 pairs 1–2 years 5–8 years 0.3 pairs (priority allocation)
Bedding (sheets, blankets) 2–4 sets 3–5 years 15–25 years 0.2 sets
Towels 4–8 items 2–4 years 10–15 years 0.3 items

Stock estimates reflect average households; actual distribution is highly uneven. Higher-income households carry substantially more stock. Children’s clothing has the shortest effective lifetime due to growth, making it a priority procurement category in any rationing scheme. Extended-use lifetimes assume basic repair skills (patching, darning, reseaming) are widely practiced.


Table 4: Household Goods Criticality Matrix

Essential household consumables and durables assessed for NZ production capacity, import dependency, substitution options, and emergency priority. Priority ratings: Critical = life-safety or basic hygiene; High = significant welfare impact if unavailable; Medium = manageable hardship; Low = convenience only. [Source: MBIE Business Operations Survey; Stats NZ Annual Enterprise Survey, 2022]

Item NZ Production Capacity Import Dependency Substitution Options Priority
Soap (bar) Moderate — tallow and lye inputs available; small domestic producers ~65% by volume Cold-process soap from animal fat + wood ash lye; documented pre-industrial process Critical
Laundry detergent Low — surfactant synthesis requires chemical industry ~80% Bar soap functions; washing soda (Na₂CO₃) can be produced from salt + limestone High
Shampoo & personal care Low ~85% Soap substitutes; vinegar rinse; traditional herbal preparations Medium
Toothpaste Low — some domestic blending ~75% Baking soda; salt; crushed charcoal; willow twig chewing sticks High
Toilet paper High — Cottonsoft and other NZ manufacturers use domestic/Australian pulp ~40% Newspaper, cloth rags, water washing (bidet function) High
Candles Low-moderate — beeswax and tallow available; small domestic producers ~80% Tallow dips, oil lamps, beeswax candles; all historically feasible High
Matches None — no domestic production 100% Ferrocerium strikers (durable, stockpile-worthy); flint and steel; friction fire Critical
Batteries (primary) None — no domestic production 100% Rechargeable batteries + solar charging; limited home chemistry options for primary cells High
Cookware (pots/pans) Very low — some cast iron; no sheet metal forming ~98% Clay pottery (NZ clays widely available); carved wooden vessels; improvised sheet metal High
Bedding (wool blankets) Moderate — NZ wool processing; Bremworth and others ~50% finished goods Wool batting in cloth covers; fleece direct from farm High
Hand tools (basic) Very low ~95% Blacksmithing can produce basic tools from scrap steel; existing stock durable High
Rope & cordage Low — some braiding from imported fibre ~90% Harakeke (NZ flax) rope; rawhide; willow withies; twisted grass High
Needles & thread None 100% Bone and thorn needles; sinew thread; plant-fibre thread (slow to produce) Critical
Rubber bands & seals None — no rubber 100% Waxed cloth; leather; improvised from inner tubes Medium
Glass containers Low — Owens-Illinois plant in Auckland produces some glass ~60% Clay pottery; carved wood; repurposed existing glass Medium
Brooms & brushes Low ~85% Twig brooms; harakeke-fibre brushes; traditional methods Low

Table 5: Domestic Manufacturing Capacity

Realistic assessment of what NZ can produce without supply chain restoration, using domestic raw materials and existing or recoverable industrial capacity. Production estimates are annual national capacity under mobilised (non-normal) conditions; peacetime commercial output would be a fraction of these figures. [Source: MBIE Industry Assessments; NZ Wool Board; Meat Industry Association]

Product Raw Material Source Existing Capacity Mobilised Estimate (annual) Bottleneck
Scoured wool NZ sheep (100,000 t/yr raw clip) Full — Cavalier Wool Holdings and others ~50,000 t (limited by shearing labour, not processing) Shearing workforce; seasonal constraint
Woollen yarn Scoured NZ wool Moderate — Woolyarns NZ and craft sector ~3,000–5,000 t (rough estimate) Spinning capacity; most large mills closed since 1990s
Woollen fabric NZ wool yarn Low — Stansborough and specialty weavers only ~200–500 t finished fabric Commercial loom capacity largely lost; hand looms supplement
Leather (tanned) NZ cattle and sheep hides (~3M/yr) Very low — a few tanneries remain ~500,000–1M hides if tanneries rebuilt Tannery capacity; chemical inputs for chrome tanning
Vegetable-tanned leather NZ hides + bark tannins (manuka, wattle) Minimal — craft sector only ~10,000–50,000 hides (slow process, 6–12 months per hide) Process time; bark harvest; skilled tanners
Tallow soap NZ slaughterhouse tallow + wood ash lye Very low — craft producers ~500–2,000 t (assuming community-scale production) Lye production; rendering capacity; moulds
Beeswax candles NZ apiculture (~10,000 t honey/yr, wax byproduct) Low — cottage producers ~200–500 t (wax is minority byproduct of honey) Wax yield limited; wick material needed
Tallow candles NZ slaughterhouse tallow Very low ~1,000–5,000 t potential (tallow is abundant byproduct) Wick cotton all imported; plant-fibre wicks feasible
Clay pottery (functional) NZ clays (abundant — Waikato, Nelson, Canterbury) Low — craft sector ~500,000–2M pieces/yr if kilns established Kiln fuel; pottery wheel or mould capacity; glaze materials
Wooden implements NZ plantation pine, native timber (limited) Moderate — sawmills operational Limited by design/tooling, not timber Metal hardware (screws, nails) still needed; hand tools
Basic paper (recycled) Recovered paper waste (large existing stock) Low — Norske Skog Tasman (Kawerau) is major NZ producer ~300,000 t/yr (Kawerau plant functional under grid power) Chemical pulping inputs; ongoing log supply
Harakeke rope & cordage Harakeke (NZ flax) — grows wild throughout NZ None industrial — traditional Maori knowledge Community-scale; not readily quantifiable Processing knowledge; retting and stripping labour-intensive

Mobilised estimates assume active government direction of production, workforce retraining, and repurposing of available industrial equipment. They should not be read as achievable without significant lead time — 6–24 months for most categories from decision to meaningful output.


Table 6: Emergency Rationing Framework — Suggested Per-Capita Allocations

Illustrative rationing allocations for a prolonged supply disruption (12+ months). These figures balance minimum welfare needs against realistic production and stockpile constraints. They are intended as a planning baseline, not a prescription. Actual rationing would require local adaptation based on climate, population demographics, and available stockpiles. Children (under 12), pregnant women, and heavy manual workers warrant supplemental allocations in several categories.

Rationing period assumed: 12-month cycle. ‘Priority group supplement’ applies to essential workers, nursing mothers, and children aged 0–12.

Item Standard Allocation (per person/yr) Priority Group Supplement Basis for Allocation Substitution if Unavailable
Bar soap 2 kg (approx. 16 bars × 125g) +50% for those doing manual/dirty work ~38g/week; reduced from typical 60–80g with rationing habits Wood ash lye wash; sand scrub
Laundry soap or detergent 2 kg +1 kg for households with infants ~40g per wash, 1 wash/week per person Bar soap in wash water
Toothpaste or equivalent 400 g (approx. 4 standard tubes) No supplement ~1.1g per brushing, twice daily Baking soda; salt
Toilet paper 12 rolls No supplement ~1 roll/week; significant reduction from normal NZ use (~3 rolls/week) Cloth rags; newspaper; water wash
Candles or lamp oil 1 kg wax or 500 ml oil +50% for households without grid access ~2.7g wax/hour burn; 3 hours lighting/day in winter Tallow dips; firelight
Matches or fire-starting 3 boxes (approx. 150 matches) OR 1 ferrocerium striker No supplement (striker preferred — indefinite life) ~4 fires/day; most uses share a source Ferrocerium; flint and steel; maintain pilot flame
Underwear 2 pairs +2 pairs for children (growth allowance) Minimum dignity standard; assumes repair of existing stock None — prioritise existing stock conservation
Socks 3 pairs +2 pairs for children; +2 for outdoor workers Assumes darning extends life; wool preferred Foot wraps from cloth; harakeke sandals (limited protection)
Outer garment (top or jersey) 1 item +1 for children under 12 Supplements existing household stock Repair and reuse of worn items
Work gloves 1 pair +1 pair for manual workers and farm workers Hand protection critical for maintaining workforce capacity Leather off-cuts; wool mittens
Needle and thread 2 needles, 50m thread No supplement Enables garment repair — high leverage item Bone needles; sinew thread (low throughput)
Rope or cordage 10 m general purpose +20m for farming households Minimum for animal management, food storage, shelter repair Harakeke rope; plaited grass; rawhide

Allocation figures are illustrative. Any functional rationing system must account for household size (not just per-capita averages), occupational needs, and regional climate variation. South Island alpine communities require substantially more wool and insulation than northern coastal regions. Rationing administration is addressed separately in Doc #003 (Fuel Requisition) and Doc #008 (Census and Civil Registration) of the Recovery Library.


Generated by scripts/generate_consumer_goods.py. All data hardcoded from published NZ trade and industry statistics. See methodology note at top of document for sourcing details.