Methodology note: All values in this document are estimates derived from Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade data, MBIE business statistics, and NZ industry reports. Import values reflect approximate annual averages for 2021–2023. Stockpile estimates assume normal consumption rates and do not account for accelerated drawdown under emergency conditions, which would substantially shorten depletion timelines. Figures should be treated as order-of-magnitude estimates, not precise measurements. Distinguish carefully between import value (NZD) and import volume (physical units); the two diverge significantly for high-value finished goods versus bulk raw materials.
Assumptions: NZ population 5.1 million. Baseline scenario: grid functional, road transport intact, domestic agriculture continuing. These tables inform Doc #009 (Textile and Household Goods) of the Recovery Library.
Table 1: NZ Import Dependency by Consumer Goods Category
Annual import values and estimated pipeline stockpile at normal consumption. Stockpile months estimate combines goods in transit, warehouse stock, and retail inventory; it does not include goods already in household possession. [Source: Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade Data, 2022–2023]
| Category | Annual Import Value (NZD) | % Imported | % Domestic | Est. Stockpile (months) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clothing & apparel | $2.1 billion | 97% | 3% | 2–3 | Virtually no domestic garment manufacturing |
| Footwear | $620 million | 99% | 1% | 3–4 | No significant domestic production |
| Textiles (raw & fabric) | $480 million | 72% | 28% | 3–5 | Wool fabric domestic; synthetics all imported |
| Household appliances | $1.4 billion | 100% | 0% | 4–6 | Assembly only; no domestic component mfg |
| Paper & cardboard products | $890 million | 55% | 45% | 2–4 | Domestic pulp mills supply some categories |
| Soap, detergent & cleaning | $310 million | 68% | 32% | 4–6 | Some domestic blending from imported base chemicals |
| Plastic goods & packaging | $1.1 billion | 91% | 9% | 2–4 | Domestic recycling/moulding; feedstock all imported |
| Rubber & rubber products | $420 million | 98% | 2% | 3–6 | Includes tyres; NZ has no rubber plantations |
| Cookware & kitchenware | $180 million | 99% | 1% | 6–12 | Long replacement cycle extends effective stockpile |
| Tools & hardware | $870 million | 95% | 5% | 6–18 | Durable goods; household stock significant |
| Candles & lighting goods | $38 million | 85% | 15% | 6–12 | Small domestic producers; beeswax and tallow available |
| Bedding & linen | $290 million | 96% | 4% | 6–12 | Wool batting domestic; fabric imported |
Import percentages by value, not volume. Domestic figures include goods manufactured in NZ from imported inputs — true domestic content (using NZ raw materials throughout) is lower. [Source: Stats NZ Overseas Merchandise Trade Data, 2023; MBIE Manufacturing Statistics, 2022]
Table 2: Textile Fiber Sources
NZ domestic fiber availability and import dependency. ‘Substitution potential’ refers to the degree to which domestic production could replace imported fiber within 1–3 years, assuming labour and equipment availability. [Source: Wool Research Organisation of NZ; Stats NZ Livestock Survey, 2023]
| Fiber | NZ Domestic Availability | Import Dependency | Substitution Potential | Est. Import Depletion | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wool (raw) | High — ~100,000 tonnes/yr shorn | Negligible (net exporter) | Excellent — existing infrastructure | N/A (domestic surplus) | NZ exports ~80% of clip; domestic processing capacity limited |
| Wool (yarn & fabric) | Moderate — small domestic mills | ~40% of finished wool textiles | Good — mills exist, need scaling | 6–12 months finished goods | Wools of NZ and craft sector provide some capacity |
| Cotton (raw) | None — not grown in NZ climate | 100% | Poor — climate unsuitable | 3–6 months | Linen (flax) is the most viable warm-climate substitute |
| Cotton (fabric & yarn) | None | 100% | Poor short-term; medium long-term via linen | 2–4 months pipeline | Largest single textile import category by volume |
| Polyester | None — requires petrochemical feedstock | 100% | None without industrial chemistry | 3–6 months | Recycled polyester from existing garments is partial bridge |
| Nylon | None | 100% | None without industrial chemistry | 4–8 months | Critical for hosiery, rope, and technical textiles |
| Linen (flax fibre) | Low — harakeke (NZ flax) abundant but unprocessed | ~90% of processed linen | Good long-term — retting and scutching can be revived | 1–3 months processed | Harakeke processing knowledge exists in Maori weaving traditions |
| Leather | High — byproduct of meat industry (~3M hides/yr) | ~30% (finished leather goods) | Good — tanneries existed historically | 6–12 months finished goods | Vegetable tanning feasible with NZ bark sources (manuka, etc.) |
| Hemp fibre | Low — licensed cultivation small-scale | ~95% | Moderate — climate suitable, regulations permitting | 1–3 months | Hemp policy liberalisation would accelerate domestic production |
Table 3: Clothing Depletion Estimates by Category
Per-capita stock estimates based on NZ Household Economic Survey data and industry consumption figures. ‘Extended-use lifetime’ assumes careful maintenance (repair, washing in cold water, avoiding UV degradation) rather than normal wear patterns. ‘Rationing allocation’ is a suggested annual per-capita provision under a formal rationing regime, prioritising functional need over variety. [Source: Stats NZ Household Economic Survey 2019; MBIE Retail Trade Statistics]
| Category | Est. Per-Capita Stock (items) | Normal Replacement Cycle | Extended-Use Lifetime | Rationing Allocation (per year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outerwear (coats, jackets) | 3–5 items | 3–5 years | 10–20 years | 0.2 items (1 per 5 years) |
| Mid-layer (jerseys, fleece) | 4–8 items | 2–4 years | 8–15 years | 0.3 items (1 per 3 years) |
| Shirts & tops | 10–20 items | 1–2 years | 5–10 years | 1 item |
| Trousers & skirts | 4–8 items | 1–2 years | 5–10 years | 0.5 items |
| Underwear | 7–14 items | 6–12 months | 2–4 years | 2 items |
| Socks & hosiery | 10–20 pairs | 3–6 months | 2–5 years | 3 pairs (darning assumed) |
| Workwear & protective clothing | 2–4 items | 1–2 years | 5–8 years | 0.5 items (priority for essential workers) |
| Children’s clothing (0–12 yr) | 15–25 items | 6–12 months | 2–3 years | 3 items (growth allowance) |
| Footwear (general) | 3–6 pairs | 1–2 years | 5–10 years | 0.5 pairs (resoleable preferred) |
| Footwear (work/safety boots) | 1–2 pairs | 1–2 years | 5–8 years | 0.3 pairs (priority allocation) |
| Bedding (sheets, blankets) | 2–4 sets | 3–5 years | 15–25 years | 0.2 sets |
| Towels | 4–8 items | 2–4 years | 10–15 years | 0.3 items |
Stock estimates reflect average households; actual distribution is highly uneven. Higher-income households carry substantially more stock. Children’s clothing has the shortest effective lifetime due to growth, making it a priority procurement category in any rationing scheme. Extended-use lifetimes assume basic repair skills (patching, darning, reseaming) are widely practiced.
Table 4: Household Goods Criticality Matrix
Essential household consumables and durables assessed for NZ production capacity, import dependency, substitution options, and emergency priority. Priority ratings: Critical = life-safety or basic hygiene; High = significant welfare impact if unavailable; Medium = manageable hardship; Low = convenience only. [Source: MBIE Business Operations Survey; Stats NZ Annual Enterprise Survey, 2022]
| Item | NZ Production Capacity | Import Dependency | Substitution Options | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soap (bar) | Moderate — tallow and lye inputs available; small domestic producers | ~65% by volume | Cold-process soap from animal fat + wood ash lye; documented pre-industrial process | Critical |
| Laundry detergent | Low — surfactant synthesis requires chemical industry | ~80% | Bar soap functions; washing soda (Na₂CO₃) can be produced from salt + limestone | High |
| Shampoo & personal care | Low | ~85% | Soap substitutes; vinegar rinse; traditional herbal preparations | Medium |
| Toothpaste | Low — some domestic blending | ~75% | Baking soda; salt; crushed charcoal; willow twig chewing sticks | High |
| Toilet paper | High — Cottonsoft and other NZ manufacturers use domestic/Australian pulp | ~40% | Newspaper, cloth rags, water washing (bidet function) | High |
| Candles | Low-moderate — beeswax and tallow available; small domestic producers | ~80% | Tallow dips, oil lamps, beeswax candles; all historically feasible | High |
| Matches | None — no domestic production | 100% | Ferrocerium strikers (durable, stockpile-worthy); flint and steel; friction fire | Critical |
| Batteries (primary) | None — no domestic production | 100% | Rechargeable batteries + solar charging; limited home chemistry options for primary cells | High |
| Cookware (pots/pans) | Very low — some cast iron; no sheet metal forming | ~98% | Clay pottery (NZ clays widely available); carved wooden vessels; improvised sheet metal | High |
| Bedding (wool blankets) | Moderate — NZ wool processing; Bremworth and others | ~50% finished goods | Wool batting in cloth covers; fleece direct from farm | High |
| Hand tools (basic) | Very low | ~95% | Blacksmithing can produce basic tools from scrap steel; existing stock durable | High |
| Rope & cordage | Low — some braiding from imported fibre | ~90% | Harakeke (NZ flax) rope; rawhide; willow withies; twisted grass | High |
| Needles & thread | None | 100% | Bone and thorn needles; sinew thread; plant-fibre thread (slow to produce) | Critical |
| Rubber bands & seals | None — no rubber | 100% | Waxed cloth; leather; improvised from inner tubes | Medium |
| Glass containers | Low — Owens-Illinois plant in Auckland produces some glass | ~60% | Clay pottery; carved wood; repurposed existing glass | Medium |
| Brooms & brushes | Low | ~85% | Twig brooms; harakeke-fibre brushes; traditional methods | Low |
Table 5: Domestic Manufacturing Capacity
Realistic assessment of what NZ can produce without supply chain restoration, using domestic raw materials and existing or recoverable industrial capacity. Production estimates are annual national capacity under mobilised (non-normal) conditions; peacetime commercial output would be a fraction of these figures. [Source: MBIE Industry Assessments; NZ Wool Board; Meat Industry Association]
| Product | Raw Material Source | Existing Capacity | Mobilised Estimate (annual) | Bottleneck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scoured wool | NZ sheep (100,000 t/yr raw clip) | Full — Cavalier Wool Holdings and others | ~50,000 t (limited by shearing labour, not processing) | Shearing workforce; seasonal constraint |
| Woollen yarn | Scoured NZ wool | Moderate — Woolyarns NZ and craft sector | ~3,000–5,000 t (rough estimate) | Spinning capacity; most large mills closed since 1990s |
| Woollen fabric | NZ wool yarn | Low — Stansborough and specialty weavers only | ~200–500 t finished fabric | Commercial loom capacity largely lost; hand looms supplement |
| Leather (tanned) | NZ cattle and sheep hides (~3M/yr) | Very low — a few tanneries remain | ~500,000–1M hides if tanneries rebuilt | Tannery capacity; chemical inputs for chrome tanning |
| Vegetable-tanned leather | NZ hides + bark tannins (manuka, wattle) | Minimal — craft sector only | ~10,000–50,000 hides (slow process, 6–12 months per hide) | Process time; bark harvest; skilled tanners |
| Tallow soap | NZ slaughterhouse tallow + wood ash lye | Very low — craft producers | ~500–2,000 t (assuming community-scale production) | Lye production; rendering capacity; moulds |
| Beeswax candles | NZ apiculture (~10,000 t honey/yr, wax byproduct) | Low — cottage producers | ~200–500 t (wax is minority byproduct of honey) | Wax yield limited; wick material needed |
| Tallow candles | NZ slaughterhouse tallow | Very low | ~1,000–5,000 t potential (tallow is abundant byproduct) | Wick cotton all imported; plant-fibre wicks feasible |
| Clay pottery (functional) | NZ clays (abundant — Waikato, Nelson, Canterbury) | Low — craft sector | ~500,000–2M pieces/yr if kilns established | Kiln fuel; pottery wheel or mould capacity; glaze materials |
| Wooden implements | NZ plantation pine, native timber (limited) | Moderate — sawmills operational | Limited by design/tooling, not timber | Metal hardware (screws, nails) still needed; hand tools |
| Basic paper (recycled) | Recovered paper waste (large existing stock) | Low — Norske Skog Tasman (Kawerau) is major NZ producer | ~300,000 t/yr (Kawerau plant functional under grid power) | Chemical pulping inputs; ongoing log supply |
| Harakeke rope & cordage | Harakeke (NZ flax) — grows wild throughout NZ | None industrial — traditional Maori knowledge | Community-scale; not readily quantifiable | Processing knowledge; retting and stripping labour-intensive |
Mobilised estimates assume active government direction of production, workforce retraining, and repurposing of available industrial equipment. They should not be read as achievable without significant lead time — 6–24 months for most categories from decision to meaningful output.
Table 6: Emergency Rationing Framework — Suggested Per-Capita Allocations
Illustrative rationing allocations for a prolonged supply disruption (12+ months). These figures balance minimum welfare needs against realistic production and stockpile constraints. They are intended as a planning baseline, not a prescription. Actual rationing would require local adaptation based on climate, population demographics, and available stockpiles. Children (under 12), pregnant women, and heavy manual workers warrant supplemental allocations in several categories.
Rationing period assumed: 12-month cycle. ‘Priority group supplement’ applies to essential workers, nursing mothers, and children aged 0–12.
| Item | Standard Allocation (per person/yr) | Priority Group Supplement | Basis for Allocation | Substitution if Unavailable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bar soap | 2 kg (approx. 16 bars × 125g) | +50% for those doing manual/dirty work | ~38g/week; reduced from typical 60–80g with rationing habits | Wood ash lye wash; sand scrub |
| Laundry soap or detergent | 2 kg | +1 kg for households with infants | ~40g per wash, 1 wash/week per person | Bar soap in wash water |
| Toothpaste or equivalent | 400 g (approx. 4 standard tubes) | No supplement | ~1.1g per brushing, twice daily | Baking soda; salt |
| Toilet paper | 12 rolls | No supplement | ~1 roll/week; significant reduction from normal NZ use (~3 rolls/week) | Cloth rags; newspaper; water wash |
| Candles or lamp oil | 1 kg wax or 500 ml oil | +50% for households without grid access | ~2.7g wax/hour burn; 3 hours lighting/day in winter | Tallow dips; firelight |
| Matches or fire-starting | 3 boxes (approx. 150 matches) OR 1 ferrocerium striker | No supplement (striker preferred — indefinite life) | ~4 fires/day; most uses share a source | Ferrocerium; flint and steel; maintain pilot flame |
| Underwear | 2 pairs | +2 pairs for children (growth allowance) | Minimum dignity standard; assumes repair of existing stock | None — prioritise existing stock conservation |
| Socks | 3 pairs | +2 pairs for children; +2 for outdoor workers | Assumes darning extends life; wool preferred | Foot wraps from cloth; harakeke sandals (limited protection) |
| Outer garment (top or jersey) | 1 item | +1 for children under 12 | Supplements existing household stock | Repair and reuse of worn items |
| Work gloves | 1 pair | +1 pair for manual workers and farm workers | Hand protection critical for maintaining workforce capacity | Leather off-cuts; wool mittens |
| Needle and thread | 2 needles, 50m thread | No supplement | Enables garment repair — high leverage item | Bone needles; sinew thread (low throughput) |
| Rope or cordage | 10 m general purpose | +20m for farming households | Minimum for animal management, food storage, shelter repair | Harakeke rope; plaited grass; rawhide |
Allocation figures are illustrative. Any functional rationing system must account for household size (not just per-capita averages), occupational needs, and regional climate variation. South Island alpine communities require substantially more wool and insulation than northern coastal regions. Rationing administration is addressed separately in Doc #003 (Fuel Requisition) and Doc #008 (Census and Civil Registration) of the Recovery Library.
Generated by
scripts/generate_consumer_goods.py. All data
hardcoded from published NZ trade and industry statistics. See
methodology note at top of document for sourcing details.