Contents
- COMPUTED DATA: FAUNA REFERENCE AND DISTRIBUTION
- PURPOSE
- 1. DOMESTIC LIVESTOCK (BASELINE CONTEXT)
- 2. WILD GAME — LARGE MAMMALS
- 3. PEST SPECIES AS FOOD SOURCES
- 4. MARINE SPECIES
- 5. FRESHWATER SPECIES
- 6. GAME BIRDS
- 7. SUMMARY TABLE: ANNUAL SUSTAINABLE HARVEST ESTIMATES
- 8. NUCLEAR WINTER EFFECTS ON WILD FAUNA
- 9. CROSS-REFERENCES
- DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS
COMPUTED DATA: FAUNA REFERENCE AND DISTRIBUTION
View the Fauna Reference Tables → — Livestock baseline, wild game species, marine and freshwater species, protein yield summary, and a distribution map.
View the generation script → — Python source code and data sources (DOC, MPI, NIWA).
PURPOSE
Unmanaged hunting depletes finite wildlife populations within years; without data on species location, population size, and sustainable harvest rates, NZ’s wild protein sources are destroyed before they can contribute meaningfully to food security. This document is a reference catalog of New Zealand’s fauna with recovery value — species that can provide food, fibre, or other material resources under isolation. It is designed as a companion to Doc #82 (Hunting and Wild Harvest for Food Security) and Doc #78 (Fisheries Management Under Changed Conditions). Doc #82 provides the management framework for sustainable harvest; this document provides the underlying population data, distribution maps, yield figures, and nutritional values that inform harvest planning.
All population figures are pre-event estimates based on the best available data from the Department of Conservation (DOC), Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI), Fish & Game NZ, and NIWA. Many figures — particularly for wild terrestrial mammals — are approximate and carry wide uncertainty ranges. Where estimates are contested or poorly constrained, this is noted.
1. DOMESTIC LIVESTOCK (BASELINE CONTEXT)
Domestic livestock are NZ’s primary protein and fat source. Wild harvest supplements but does not replace pastoral farming. These figures provide context for the scale comparison.
| Species | Estimated Population | Primary Regions | Annual Meat Production (pre-event) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheep | ~26 million | Canterbury, Otago, Wairarapa, Hawke’s Bay, Southland | ~460,000 tonnes1 |
| Dairy cattle | ~6.3 million | Waikato, Taranaki, Canterbury, Southland | N/A (milk: ~22 billion litres/yr)2 |
| Beef cattle | ~3.9 million | Waikato, Northland, Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay | ~680,000 tonnes3 |
| Farmed deer | ~830,000 | Canterbury, Otago, Southland, Waikato | ~25,000 tonnes4 |
| Pigs (farmed) | ~340,000 | Waikato, Canterbury, Manawatu | ~50,000 tonnes5 |
| Poultry | ~130 million (incl. layer hens ~4M) | Nationwide, concentrated Waikato/Auckland | ~230,000 tonnes6 |
For livestock management under nuclear winter, see Doc #74 (Pastoral Farming) and Doc #3 (Food Rationing).
2. WILD GAME — LARGE MAMMALS
All large wild mammals in NZ are introduced species, classified as pests under the Wild Animal Control Act 1977. Under recovery conditions, they become managed food resources.
2.1 Deer (seven species)
NZ has one of the most diverse wild deer populations of any country outside their native ranges, with seven established species.7 Total wild deer population is estimated at 250,000–500,000, though this range is poorly constrained — no comprehensive national census has been conducted and estimates vary widely.8
| Species | Est. Population | Distribution | Typical Dressed Weight | Habitat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red deer (Cervus elaphus) | 150,000–300,000 | Nationwide; densest in Fiordland, Westland, Central NI | 50–80 kg | Bush margins, tussock, river valleys |
| Fallow deer (Dama dama) | 20,000–40,000 | Wairarapa, Blue Mountains (Otago), Northland, scattered NI | 25–40 kg | Open woodland, farmland margins |
| Sika deer (Cervus nippon) | 15,000–30,000 | Kaimanawa Ranges, Kaweka Ranges (central NI) | 30–50 kg | Podocarp-hardwood forest |
| Sambar deer (Rusa unicolor) | 5,000–10,000 | Manawatu, Bay of Plenty | 80–120 kg | Dense bush, swamp margins |
| Rusa deer (Rusa timorensis) | 2,000–5,000 | Rotorua area | 40–60 kg | Bush, farmland margins |
| Whitetail deer (Odocoileus virginianus) | 1,000–2,000 | Stewart Island/Rakiura | 25–40 kg | Coastal bush |
| Wapiti (Cervus canadensis) | 1,500–3,000 | Fiordland (limited range) | 80–130 kg | Alpine, subalpine, bush |
Hunting methods: Stalking with rifle (most common), driven hunts, trapping in corrals for live capture. Under recovery conditions, snaring and pit trapping become important to conserve ammunition.
Sustainable harvest rate: Estimated at 10–20% of population annually for red deer, based on reproductive rates (one calf per hind per year, ~60–80% calf survival).9 At 250,000 total deer, this implies a sustainable national harvest of 25,000–50,000 animals per year, yielding roughly 1,250–4,000 tonnes of venison annually.
Processing notes: Venison is lean (2–5% fat).10 Field dressing is required promptly — within 1–2 hours in warm conditions (above ~15C), longer in cool weather. Preservable by drying, smoking, salting. Hides usable for leather. Antler has limited practical value but bone is usable.
2.2 Wild pigs (Sus scrofa)
Estimated population: 50,000–100,000, possibly higher. No reliable census exists.11
Distribution: Throughout both islands, densest in Northland, East Cape, Urewera, Waikato bush, West Coast (SI). Absent from high alpine areas.
Dressed weight: 25–60 kg depending on age and condition. Boars can exceed 100 kg live weight.
Hunting methods: Dogs and knife (traditional NZ method; conserves ammunition), stalking with rifle, trapping. Dog hunting is highly effective and does not require firearms.
Sustainable harvest rate: Pigs are prolific breeders (6–10 piglets per litter, 1–2 litters per year), so sustainable harvest rates are higher than for deer — potentially 30–50% of population annually.12 At 75,000 animals, this suggests 22,000–37,000 harvestable per year, yielding approximately 550–2,200 tonnes of pork.
Processing notes: Pork is higher in fat than venison (15–30%), making it more calorie-dense and valuable for cooking fat. Requires thorough cooking — risk of trichinosis in wild pigs.13 Preservable by smoking, salting, and rendering to lard.
2.3 Wild goats (Capra hircus)
Estimated population: 80,000–120,000.14
Distribution: Rocky hill country throughout both islands. Concentrations in Kaimanawa Ranges, Rimutaka Range, Marlborough Sounds, Banks Peninsula, Aoraki/Mt Cook region.
Dressed weight: 12–25 kg.
Hunting methods: Stalking, trapping, driving. Goats can also be live-captured and incorporated into domestic herds for ongoing milk and meat production. Goat milk is broadly comparable to cow milk in macronutrient profile, though lower in folate and vitamin B12.15
Sustainable harvest rate: Goats breed prolifically (twins common, breeding from age 1). Harvest rate of 30–40% annually is likely sustainable. Estimated 24,000–48,000 per year, yielding 290–1,200 tonnes.
2.4 Himalayan tahr (Hemitragus jemlahicus)
Estimated population: 25,000–35,000.16
Distribution: Southern Alps, mainly from Arthur’s Pass to Mt Cook. Alpine and subalpine habitat, 600–2,200 m elevation.
Dressed weight: 25–45 kg (bulls larger).
Hunting methods: Alpine stalking with rifle. Difficult terrain limits harvest rate. Not practical for large-scale food harvest due to remote, steep habitat.
Sustainable harvest rate: 10–15% annually. Estimated 2,500–5,000 per year, yielding 60–225 tonnes. Logistically challenging to recover carcasses from alpine terrain.
2.5 Chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra)
Estimated population: 15,000–25,000.17
Distribution: Southern Alps and ranges of the central South Island. Overlaps with tahr range but extends further south and north.
Dressed weight: 15–25 kg.
Sustainable harvest rate: Similar to tahr — limited by access. Estimated 1,500–3,750 per year, yielding 22–95 tonnes.
2.6 Wallaby (Bennett’s wallaby, Notamacropus rufogriseus)
Estimated population: Uncertain; possibly 30,000–50,000 in the South Canterbury/Waimate region, with smaller populations in Rotorua and Bay of Plenty.18
Distribution: Concentrated around Hunter Hills and Waimate (SI). Smaller populations in Rotorua (NI).
Dressed weight: 3–6 kg.
Sustainable harvest rate: High — wallabies breed quickly. Harvest of 30–50% annually is likely sustainable. However, total meat yield is modest due to small body size. Estimated 50–150 tonnes per year.
3. PEST SPECIES AS FOOD SOURCES
3.1 Brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula)
Estimated population: 25–35 million (reduced from a peak of 60–70 million through decades of control operations; the commonly cited “30 million” figure is a DOC operational estimate with wide uncertainty).19
Distribution: Throughout both islands and Stewart Island. Found in forest, farmland, suburban areas.
Body weight: 2–5 kg. Dressed meat yield: 0.8–1.5 kg per animal.
Nutritional value: Possum meat is lean, approximately 1,100–1,400 kcal per kg.20 Flavour is described as gamey.
Harvest methods: Leg-hold traps, kill traps (Timms traps, DOC traps), shooting (.22 at night with spotlight). Trapping is the most efficient method at scale and conserves ammunition.
Recovery value beyond meat: Possum fur is NZ’s most valuable wild fibre — warm, lightweight, and already the basis of a commercial fibre industry. Possum-merino blend yarn production continues to be valuable for clothing (Doc #36). Pelts are usable for hats, gloves, and linings.
Sustainable harvest rate: Even aggressive harvest of 5–10 million per year would not deplete the population, as possums breed annually (one joey per year, occasionally twins) and populations recover rapidly in the absence of predator control.21 Estimated yield at 5 million per year: 4,000–7,500 tonnes of meat plus approximately 5 million pelts.
3.2 Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus)
Estimated population: Difficult to estimate nationally; populations fluctuate dramatically. In peak years, Central Otago, Mackenzie Country, and Canterbury high country support very high densities — tens of millions nationally in good years, far fewer after rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) outbreaks.22
Distribution: Dry eastern regions of the South Island (highest densities), Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa. Lower densities in wetter regions.
Body weight: 1.2–2 kg. Dressed meat yield: 0.5–1 kg.
Nutritional value: Lean meat (~1,000–1,200 kcal/kg).23 Very low fat content (typically 3–5%) — a diet exclusively of rabbit can cause protein poisoning (“rabbit starvation”) if not supplemented with fat sources.24
Harvest methods: Shooting (.22 rifle), ferreting, netting, trapping. Night shooting with spotlight is highly productive in open country.
Sustainable harvest rate: In high-density areas, hundreds of thousands can be harvested annually without population decline. Nationally, a sustainable harvest of 2–5 million rabbits per year is plausible, yielding 1,000–5,000 tonnes of meat.
3.3 Hares (Lepus europaeus)
Estimated population: Uncertain; probably several hundred thousand to 1–2 million nationally.25
Distribution: Open farmland, tussock country, throughout both islands. More solitary than rabbits.
Body weight: 3–4 kg. Dressed meat yield: 1.5–2.5 kg.
Harvest methods: Shooting, coursing, trapping. Less productive to hunt than rabbits as hares are solitary and wary.
Sustainable harvest rate: Modest — perhaps 100,000–300,000 per year. Yield: 150–750 tonnes.
4. MARINE SPECIES
NZ’s Exclusive Economic Zone covers approximately 4.1 million km², one of the largest in the world. Pre-event commercial fisheries landed approximately 400,000–450,000 tonnes of seafood annually.26 Under nuclear winter, marine productivity is expected to decline due to reduced light (lower phytoplankton production), ocean cooling, and possible disruption of current patterns. The magnitude of this decline is one of the most important uncertainties for NZ food security — estimates range from 20% to 60% reduction in fish stocks over 3–7 years (see Doc #78).27
4.1 Key Finfish Species
| Species | Pre-event Catch (tonnes/yr) | Primary Regions | Depth/Habitat | Seasonality |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoki (Macruronus novaezelandiae) | ~120,000–150,000 | West Coast SI, Chatham Rise, sub-Antarctic | Deep water (200–800 m) | Year-round; spawning Jun–Sep |
| Snapper (Chrysophrys auratus) | ~6,000–8,000 | Hauraki Gulf, Bay of Plenty, west coast NI | Coastal, 10–100 m | Best Oct–Apr |
| Tarakihi (Nemadactylus macropterus) | ~4,000–5,000 | East coast both islands, esp. Kaikoura, Hawke’s Bay | 20–250 m | Year-round; best summer |
| Blue cod (Parapercis colias) | ~2,500–3,000 | Marlborough Sounds, Southland, Chatham Islands | Reef, 5–150 m | Year-round |
| Hapuku/groper (Polyprion oxygeneios) | ~1,000–1,500 | All coasts, deeper water | Deep reef, 50–400 m | Year-round |
| Trevally (Pseudocaranx dentex) | ~3,000–4,000 | Northern NI, Bay of Plenty, Hauraki Gulf | Coastal, pelagic | Summer–autumn |
| Kahawai (Arripis trutta) | ~3,000–4,000 | All coasts, esp. NI east coast | Coastal, surface | Year-round; best summer |
| Jack mackerel (Trachurus spp.) | ~30,000–50,000 | Nationwide, pelagic | Mid-water, pelagic | Year-round |
| Ling (Genypterus blacodes) | ~8,000–10,000 | Southern waters, Chatham Rise | Deep water, 200–700 m | Year-round |
| Albacore tuna (Thunnus alalunga) | ~3,000–5,000 | Western NZ waters, seasonal | Pelagic, surface | Dec–May |
Nutritional value (general finfish): 800–1,200 kcal/kg depending on species and fat content.28 Oily fish (kahawai, tuna, mackerel) are higher in calories and contain omega-3 fatty acids. White fish (snapper, blue cod, tarakihi) are leaner.
Processing notes: Fish must be processed within hours of catch. Preservation methods: smoking (requires salt and a supply of hardwood — effective but produces a product with shorter shelf life and less consistent quality than modern refrigeration or canning), salting/drying (stockfish — requires large quantities of salt; salt supply constraints are addressed in Doc #116), pickling (requires vinegar). Canning is possible while tin plate and sealing equipment remain functional, but tin plate is an imported consumable with finite NZ stocks — canning capacity will decline as stocks deplete (see Doc #1 for consumable inventories). Fish oil is recoverable and nutritionally valuable.
Nuclear winter vulnerability: Deep-water species (hoki, ling, hapuku) are buffered from surface temperature and light changes in the short term but depend on food chains ultimately driven by surface productivity. Coastal species (snapper, blue cod) are more directly affected by temperature changes — snapper in particular are near their southern temperature limit in NZ and populations may contract northward under cooling.29
4.2 Shellfish and Crustaceans
| Species | Pre-event Harvest | Primary Regions | Habitat | Nutritional Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenshell mussel (Perna canaliculus) | ~100,000 t (farmed + wild) | Marlborough Sounds (farmed), nationwide (wild) | Intertidal to 50 m | ~700 kcal/kg meat; high iron, zinc |
| Paua (Haliotis iris, H. australis) | ~1,000–1,200 t (commercial) | South Island coast, Stewart Island, Chatham Islands | Rocky intertidal, to 10 m | ~800 kcal/kg; high protein |
| Rock lobster/crayfish (Jasus edwardsii) | ~2,500–3,000 t | All rocky coasts; esp. Kaikoura, Chathams, Fiordland | Rocky reef, 5–200 m | ~900 kcal/kg; high protein |
| Kina (Evechinus chloroticus) | ~800–1,000 t (commercial) | Nationwide rocky coasts | Rocky reef, intertidal to 15 m | ~1,200 kcal/kg roe; high fat |
| Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) | ~8,000–10,000 t (farmed) | Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, Nelson | Intertidal, estuarine | ~600 kcal/kg; high zinc |
| Pipi (Paphies australis) | Customary/recreational | North Island sandy beaches, esp. Northland, Waikato | Sandy intertidal | ~600 kcal/kg |
| Tuatua (Paphies subtriangulata) | Customary/recreational | Exposed sand beaches, both islands | Sandy intertidal | ~600 kcal/kg |
| Scallop (Pecten novaezelandiae) | ~500–1,500 t (variable) | Coromandel, Nelson/Tasman, Chatham Islands | Sandy bottom, 10–60 m | ~800 kcal/kg |
Nutritional values in the table above are approximate and derived from USDA FoodData Central and the NZ Food Composition Database.30 Actual values vary with species size, season, and preparation.
Sustainability warning: Shellfish beds, particularly paua, kina, pipi, and cockle, are highly vulnerable to localised overharvesting. A single community can strip an accessible reef within weeks. The traditional Maori practice of rahui (temporary harvest closures) is an effective management tool and should be applied from Day 1.31
Aquaculture potential: NZ’s existing Greenshell mussel farms (~100,000 tonnes/year) and Pacific oyster farms are a significant food resource that can continue and expand under recovery conditions. Mussel farming requires spat (juvenile mussels) from wild sources, rope or longline infrastructure, and boat access. See Doc #81.
4.3 Seaweed
Edible seaweed species including karengo (Pyropia spp., the NZ equivalent of nori), wakame (Undaria pinnatifida — an invasive species, abundant and harvestable), and bull kelp (Durvillaea antarctica). Nutritionally valuable for iodine, minerals, and dietary fibre. Karengo is a traditional Maori food gathered from rocky coasts, particularly the South Island and Chatham Islands.32
5. FRESHWATER SPECIES
5.1 Trout
| Species | Est. Population | Distribution | Typical Weight | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brown trout (Salmo trutta) | Millions (self-sustaining) | Rivers and lakes throughout both islands | 0.5–3 kg; trophy fish to 7 kg+ | Year-round (current season Oct–Apr) |
| Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) | Millions (self-sustaining) | Central NI (Taupo, Rotorua), SI rivers and lakes | 0.5–4 kg; Taupo fish to 5 kg+ | Year-round (current season Oct–Apr) |
Harvest methods: Rod and line, netting (currently illegal but appropriate under recovery), trapping at river mouths during spawning runs.
Sustainable yield: NZ’s trout fisheries support an estimated recreational harvest of 1–2 million fish per year.33 Under managed netting, catch rates could increase substantially in productive waters (Taupo, Canterbury rivers, Southland streams). Estimated sustainable yield if netting is permitted: 2,000–5,000 tonnes per year nationally.
Processing notes: Trout flesh is moderately fatty (~1,000–1,400 kcal/kg).34 Preservable by smoking (hot or cold smoke), drying, or salting.
5.2 Eels/tuna (Anguilla spp.)
| Species | Distribution | Typical Weight | Habitat |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shortfin eel (Anguilla australis) | Lowland rivers, lakes, wetlands, both islands | 0.5–3 kg | Lowland, coastal |
| Longfin eel (Anguilla dieffenbachii) | Rivers, lakes, wetlands, both islands (endemic) | 1–10 kg; large females to 20 kg+ | All altitudes |
Population: Total eel biomass in NZ waterways is uncertain but substantial. Pre-event commercial harvest was approximately 600–900 tonnes per year, with significant customary (Maori) harvest in addition.35
Cultural significance: Tuna are a taonga species and a central element of Maori freshwater food systems. Customary harvest practices — including hinaki (eel traps/pots), pa tuna (eel weirs), and seasonal management — represent centuries of accumulated management knowledge.
Sustainable harvest rate: The longfin eel is slow-growing (females may take 30–80 years to reach breeding size) and populations have declined significantly under commercial fishing pressure.36 Harvest must be managed conservatively, prioritising shortfin eels (faster-growing, more abundant) and protecting large breeding-size longfin females. A sustainable national harvest of 500–1,000 tonnes per year is a reasonable estimate, with strict size limits.
Nutritional value: Eel is calorie-dense — approximately 1,800–2,400 kcal/kg due to high fat content (15–30% fat).37 This makes eels one of the most energy-rich wild food sources available.
5.3 Whitebait (juvenile Galaxias spp.)
Five species, all native. Whitebait runs occur August–November in rivers throughout NZ. The fishery is significant in volume (estimated 40–100 tonnes per year historically) but highly seasonal and variable.38 Nutritionally dense (~900–1,100 kcal/kg).39 Under recovery conditions, whitebait harvest should continue but within managed quotas — several Galaxias species are in decline and the spawning population must be protected.
6. GAME BIRDS
Most native birds are protected and must remain so — NZ’s endemic bird species are irreplaceable and have limited food value relative to their conservation importance. Introduced game birds, however, are legitimate harvest targets.
| Species | Est. Population | Distribution | Dressed Weight | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos) | 3–5 million40 | Nationwide; wetlands, farmland, urban | 0.5–1 kg | Autumn–winter (May–Jul traditional) |
| Paradise shelduck (Tadorna variegata) | ~600,000–700,000 | Nationwide, esp. farmland, rivers | 1–1.5 kg | Autumn–winter |
| Canada goose (Branta canadensis) | ~40,000–60,000 | Canterbury, Otago high country lakes | 2–4 kg | Autumn–winter |
| Pukeko (Porphyrio melanotus) | Several hundred thousand | Nationwide, wetlands | 0.3–0.5 kg | Currently protected; edible |
| California quail (Callipepla californica) | Unknown; common in dry eastern areas | Canterbury, Otago, Hawke’s Bay, Wairarapa | 0.1–0.15 kg | Autumn |
| Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) | Unknown; scattered, low density | Farmland, mainly NI | 0.5–0.8 kg | Autumn |
| Wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) | Small populations | Scattered, mainly NI (Waikato, Bay of Plenty) | 3–6 kg | Limited availability |
Harvest methods: Shotgun (most common; consumes ammunition quickly), trapping, netting. For ducks and geese, decoy-assisted shooting and net trapping at roosts are effective. Snaring is feasible for some species.
Total game bird harvest potential: Fish & Game NZ estimates pre-event recreational harvest at approximately 1.2–1.5 million game birds per year, predominantly mallards.41 Sustainable managed harvest could increase modestly, but bird populations are vulnerable to breeding-season disturbance and habitat loss. Estimated sustainable yield: 500–1,500 tonnes of bird meat per year.
7. SUMMARY TABLE: ANNUAL SUSTAINABLE HARVEST ESTIMATES
| Category | Species/Group | Est. Sustainable Harvest (tonnes/yr) | Primary Caloric Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild deer (all species) | Red, fallow, sika, sambar, etc. | 1,250–4,000 | Lean protein |
| Wild pigs | Feral pig | 550–2,200 | Protein + fat |
| Wild goats | Feral goat | 290–1,200 | Lean protein |
| Tahr + chamois | Alpine species | 80–320 | Lean protein (access-limited) |
| Wallaby | Bennett’s wallaby | 50–150 | Lean protein (localised) |
| Possums | Brushtail possum | 4,000–7,500 | Lean protein + fur |
| Rabbits | European rabbit | 1,000–5,000 | Lean protein (low fat — supplement with fat sources) |
| Hares | Brown hare | 150–750 | Lean protein |
| Marine fish | All commercial species | 150,000–350,000 | Protein + fat (oily fish) |
| Shellfish (wild + farmed) | Mussels, paua, crayfish, etc. | 50,000–120,000 | Protein + micronutrients |
| Freshwater fish | Trout, eels, whitebait | 2,500–6,000 | Protein + fat (eels esp.) |
| Game birds | Ducks, geese, quail, pheasant | 500–1,500 | Protein + fat |
| TOTAL WILD HARVEST | ~210,000–500,000 |
Note on marine figures: The marine fish and shellfish figures represent pre-event sustainable yields. Under nuclear winter, these may decline by 20–60% (see Section 4 and Doc #78). Adjusted marine yield: 80,000–280,000 tonnes. Total adjusted wild harvest: ~90,000–310,000 tonnes per year.
Scale comparison: Total wild harvest (terrestrial and marine) provides an estimated 100–400 billion kcal per year — enough to feed approximately 140,000–550,000 people at 2,000 kcal/day. This is 3–10% of NZ’s population requirement. Wild harvest is a significant supplement to agriculture but cannot replace it.
8. NUCLEAR WINTER EFFECTS ON WILD FAUNA
Terrestrial mammals: Wild deer, pigs, goats, and possums will experience reduced forage quality and quantity under nuclear winter, leading to population declines even without increased hunting pressure. Animals in marginal habitat (alpine, southern regions) will be most affected. Reproductive rates will likely decline. Population estimates in this document should be treated as starting values that may decrease 20–50% over the first 3–5 years due to environmental stress alone.42
Marine fisheries: The critical concern is phytoplankton reduction from decreased sunlight, which propagates up the marine food chain. Surface-dwelling and plankton-dependent species (mackerel, kahawai, trevally) are most vulnerable. Deep-water species (hoki, ling) may be buffered initially but will be affected as reduced surface productivity propagates to depth over 1–3 years. Warm-water species (snapper, trevally) may contract northward as temperatures drop. Cold-water species may be less affected or benefit from reduced competition.
Freshwater: Trout and eel populations depend on invertebrate food sources that are ultimately driven by plant productivity. Reduced terrestrial input (leaf litter, insects) and colder water temperatures will reduce freshwater productivity, though the magnitude is uncertain. Eels are long-lived and resilient; trout are more sensitive to temperature changes but well-adapted to NZ’s cold rivers.
9. CROSS-REFERENCES
- Doc #74: Pastoral Farming Under Nuclear Winter — livestock management, the primary food system
- Doc #78: Fisheries Management Under Changed Conditions — marine fisheries management framework
- Doc #82: Hunting and Wild Harvest for Food Security — operational management guide for wild harvest
- Doc #81: Seaweed Farming and Greenhouse Construction — aquaculture expansion
- Doc #3: Food Rationing and Distribution — national food allocation framework
- Doc #36: Clothing and Footwear — possum fur, deer hide as material sources
- Doc #1: National Emergency Stockpile Strategy — ammunition stocks as a constraint on hunting
DATA SOURCES AND LIMITATIONS
Population estimates in this document are drawn from:
- Department of Conservation (DOC): Pest animal management reports, conservation status assessments. DOC data on deer, tahr, chamois, possums, and goats is the most comprehensive available but is focused on pest control, not food resource assessment.
- Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI): Fisheries catch data, aquaculture statistics, livestock numbers. MPI Quota Management System data provides the best available stock assessments for commercial marine species.
- Fish & Game NZ: Game bird population surveys, hunter harvest data, trout fishery assessments.
- NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research): Marine stock assessments, climate-fishery modelling.
- Stats NZ: Agricultural production statistics for livestock numbers.
Many population estimates — particularly for wild terrestrial mammals — are extrapolations from limited survey data, expert opinion, or modelled estimates. The ranges given in this document reflect this uncertainty. A post-event national fauna survey using existing DOC and Fish & Game field staff would significantly improve these estimates and should be a priority for harvest management planning (see Doc #82, Recommended Action #14).
MPI, “Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries” (SOPI), various years. Meat production figures are approximate annual averages. https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-inte...↩︎
DairyNZ, “New Zealand Dairy Statistics,” 2023/24 season. https://www.dairynz.co.nz/publications/dairy-industry/new...↩︎
MPI, “Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries” (SOPI), various years. Meat production figures are approximate annual averages. https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-inte...↩︎
Deer Industry New Zealand, “DINZ Annual Report,” various years. Farmed deer numbers have declined from a peak of ~1.7 million in the early 2000s. https://www.deernz.org/↩︎
MPI, “Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries” (SOPI), various years. Meat production figures are approximate annual averages. https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-inte...↩︎
MPI, “Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries” (SOPI), various years. Meat production figures are approximate annual averages. https://www.mpi.govt.nz/resources-and-forms/economic-inte...↩︎
Wild deer population estimates are poorly constrained. The 250,000 figure is commonly cited by DOC and hunting organisations but is acknowledged as rough. Some estimates range as high as 500,000–800,000. See: Nugent, G. et al., “Trajectories of change for wild deer populations in New Zealand,” NZ Journal of Ecology, 2001; Fraser, K.W. et al., “Monitoring ungulate impacts on forest — a review,” DOC Science Internal Series, 2000.↩︎
Wild deer population estimates are poorly constrained. The 250,000 figure is commonly cited by DOC and hunting organisations but is acknowledged as rough. Some estimates range as high as 500,000–800,000. See: Nugent, G. et al., “Trajectories of change for wild deer populations in New Zealand,” NZ Journal of Ecology, 2001; Fraser, K.W. et al., “Monitoring ungulate impacts on forest — a review,” DOC Science Internal Series, 2000.↩︎
Reproductive and harvest rate estimates based on: Nugent, G. and Fraser, K.W., “Red deer ecology and management in New Zealand,” in “The Ecology and Management of European Deer,” Royal Society of Edinburgh, 1999. Harvest rate sustainability depends heavily on local conditions and population structure.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
Wild pig population estimates are especially uncertain. Figures based on DOC and regional council pest management reports. McIlroy, J.C., “The sensitivity of Australian animals to 1080 poison,” Australian Wildlife Research, 1981, provides context on feral pig biology.↩︎
Pig reproductive rates from: Giles, J.R., “Breeding ecology of feral pigs in western New South Wales,” Wildlife Research, 1980. NZ-specific studies are limited.↩︎
Trichinella spiralis has been detected in NZ feral pigs at low prevalence. All wild pork should be cooked to a minimum internal temperature of 71C. See: Thornbury, C.M. et al., “Trichinella in New Zealand,” NZ Veterinary Journal, 2001.↩︎
Wild goat population estimates from DOC regional pest management strategies and Parkes, J.P., “Feral goat control in New Zealand,” DOC Science Internal Series, 1993.↩︎
USDA FoodData Central, “Milk, goat, fluid, with added vitamin D” vs. “Milk, whole, 3.25% milkfat.” Goat milk is comparable in energy (~69 kcal/100ml vs ~61 kcal/100ml) and protein (~3.6g vs ~3.2g/100ml) but lower in folate (~1 mcg vs ~5 mcg/100ml) and vitamin B12 (~0.07 mcg vs ~0.45 mcg/100ml). See also: Park, Y.W. et al., “Physico-chemical characteristics of goat and sheep milk,” Small Ruminant Research, 2007.↩︎
Tahr and chamois population estimates from DOC Himalayan Tahr Control Plan 2020-2030 and Forsyth, D.M. et al., “Population dynamics and resource use of chamois in the eastern Southern Alps,” DOC Science Internal Series, 2000.↩︎
Tahr and chamois population estimates from DOC Himalayan Tahr Control Plan 2020-2030 and Forsyth, D.M. et al., “Population dynamics and resource use of chamois in the eastern Southern Alps,” DOC Science Internal Series, 2000.↩︎
Wallaby populations from Environment Canterbury and DOC. Population estimates are particularly uncertain due to limited survey coverage. See: Warburton, B., “Bennett’s wallaby population control,” DOC report, various years.↩︎
Possum population estimates from: Cowan, P.E. and Clout, M.N., “Possums on the move: Activity patterns, home ranges, and dispersal,” in “The Brushtail Possum: Biology, Impact and Management of an Introduced Marsupial,” Manaaki Whenua Press, 2000. The 30 million figure is a widely used DOC estimate. Original population peak estimate of 60–70 million is from Pracy, L.T., “Introduction and liberation of the opossum into New Zealand,” NZ Forest Service, 1974.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
Possum population estimates from: Cowan, P.E. and Clout, M.N., “Possums on the move: Activity patterns, home ranges, and dispersal,” in “The Brushtail Possum: Biology, Impact and Management of an Introduced Marsupial,” Manaaki Whenua Press, 2000. The 30 million figure is a widely used DOC estimate. Original population peak estimate of 60–70 million is from Pracy, L.T., “Introduction and liberation of the opossum into New Zealand,” NZ Forest Service, 1974.↩︎
Rabbit and hare population data from: Norbury, G. and Reddiex, B., “European rabbit,” in “The Handbook of New Zealand Mammals,” Oxford University Press, 2005. Populations are highly cyclic due to RHD and predator-prey dynamics.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
“Rabbit starvation” (protein poisoning) occurs when lean meat is the sole food source without adequate fat or carbohydrate. See: Speth, J.D. and Spielmann, K.A., “Energy source, protein metabolism, and hunter-gatherer subsistence strategies,” Journal of Anthropological Archaeology, 1983.↩︎
Rabbit and hare population data from: Norbury, G. and Reddiex, B., “European rabbit,” in “The Handbook of New Zealand Mammals,” Oxford University Press, 2005. Populations are highly cyclic due to RHD and predator-prey dynamics.↩︎
MPI, “Fisheries Assessment Plenary,” various years. Total commercial catch data from the Quota Management System. https://www.mpi.govt.nz/fishing-aquaculture/↩︎
Nuclear winter effects on marine productivity are modelled in: Coupe, J. et al., “Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios,” Communications Earth & Environment, 2021; Harrison, C.S. et al., “A new ocean state after nuclear war,” AGU Advances, 2022. NZ-specific impacts are extrapolated from global models and carry large uncertainty.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
Nuclear winter effects on marine productivity are modelled in: Coupe, J. et al., “Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios,” Communications Earth & Environment, 2021; Harrison, C.S. et al., “A new ocean state after nuclear war,” AGU Advances, 2022. NZ-specific impacts are extrapolated from global models and carry large uncertainty.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
Rahui and customary fisheries management: Mead, H.M. and Grove, N., “Nga Pepeha a nga Tipuna,” Victoria University Press, 2001. Modern application of rahui for fisheries management is documented in multiple iwi management plans. See also: Ministry of Fisheries, “Customary Fishing Regulations,” various regional instruments.↩︎
Karengo harvest and use: Nelson, W.A., “Karengo,” Te Ara — the Encyclopedia of New Zealand. https://teara.govt.nz/en/seaweed↩︎
Trout harvest estimates from Fish & Game NZ national angler surveys. Unwin, M.J., “Angler usage of NZ lake and river fisheries,” NIWA Client Report, various years.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
Eel population and fisheries data from: Jellyman, D.J., “A review of the evidence for a decline in the abundance of longfinned eels in New Zealand,” MPI report, 2012. Commercial eel catch has been managed under the Quota Management System since 2004. Longfin eel populations are considered to have declined significantly from historical levels.↩︎
Eel population and fisheries data from: Jellyman, D.J., “A review of the evidence for a decline in the abundance of longfinned eels in New Zealand,” MPI report, 2012. Commercial eel catch has been managed under the Quota Management System since 2004. Longfin eel populations are considered to have declined significantly from historical levels.↩︎
Eel nutritional data: USDA FoodData Central, “Eel, mixed species, raw.” NZ-specific composition data from: Vlieg, P. and Body, D.R., “Lipid composition of New Zealand freshwater eels,” NZ Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 1988.↩︎
Whitebait fishery estimates are approximate and highly variable between years. See: McDowall, R.M., “New Zealand Freshwater Fishes: A Natural History and Guide,” Heinemann Reed, 1990. Several galaxiid species are listed as threatened.↩︎
Nutritional values (kcal/kg) throughout this document are based on USDA FoodData Central entries for the relevant species and NZ-specific composition data where available. NZ Food Composition Database (The NZ Institute for Plant and Food Research and MoH) provides NZ-specific values for many species listed here. Energy densities are approximate and vary with season, animal condition, and preparation method.↩︎
Mallard population estimates are imprecise. The commonly cited “5 million” figure derives from Fish & Game NZ estimates but is acknowledged as a rough order-of-magnitude figure. Population fluctuates significantly between seasons and years. See: Caithness, T.A., “Gamebird hunting in New Zealand,” in “Ducks Unlimited NZ,” various publications.↩︎
Fish & Game NZ, “Game Bird Harvest Survey,” various years. https://www.fishandgame.org.nz/↩︎
Nuclear winter effects on marine productivity are modelled in: Coupe, J. et al., “Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios,” Communications Earth & Environment, 2021; Harrison, C.S. et al., “A new ocean state after nuclear war,” AGU Advances, 2022. NZ-specific impacts are extrapolated from global models and carry large uncertainty.↩︎